Drawn-out elections in Congo could test EU’s staying power

EU military planners and politicians will be hoping for a decisive vote in this Sunday's elections in the Democratic Republic of Congo, if only to avoid political problems at home.

On 30 July millions of eligible Congolese voters will go to the polls in the first free presidential elections in 40 years, the culmination of international efforts to transform the country.

Around 780 EU troops are in the capital Kinshasa to support a United Nations force which is trying to ensure that the elections pass off smoothly.

But if none of the more than 30 candidates can get more than 50% of the vote then a second round is inevitable and the process could drag beyond the EU's foreseen departure at the end of November.

The full results from the first round are not expected until August or September and the lack of opinion polls makes predicting the outcome difficult.

But extending the EU mission may prove as difficult as was agreeing to launch the mission.

The deployment of EU troops proved controversial, particularly in Germany, which is playing the lead role in the mission. Berlin is determined to meet the withdrawal date.

Privately diplomats said that if the mission could not be extended in its current format, then another format will need to be found.

For the EU a lot is riding on the mission. It is being seen as a key test of the EU's security and defence policy and a model for the Union's future involvement around the world.

For the first time all the EU's humanitarian, political and military instruments have been brought together in a non-European country.

The EU has paid for nearly 80% of the cost of the elections, is training Congolese police and judges and is providing a preventive force to ensure that violence is contained.

According to Ana Gomes, a member of the European Parliament who leaves to monitor the elections today (27 June), the force must stay until the end of the process.

"This mission is to support MONUC [the UN force] in the electoral process, this is not just voting day, it is not just counting, they must stay until the votes are out."

So far the elections have been largely peaceful, despite some rioting in Kinshasa, in which an EU patrol vehicle was attacked. Observers and diplomats agree that the risk of spontaneous unrest is unlikely.

But according to one well placed observer, who did not want to be named for fear of being refused a Congolese visa in future, the risk of violence still comes from the presidential candidates who view the campaign as "the winner takes all".

Depending on the outcome, supporters of President Joseph Kabila or his main competitor, former rebel leader Jean-Pierre Bemba, could seek to stoke violence.

Bemba is estimated to have 400 bodyguards and some 1,000 troops on the outskirts of Kinshasa.

EU military planners and politicians will be hoping for a decisive vote in this Sunday's elections in the Democratic Republic of Congo, if only to avoid political problems at home.