Don’t hold your breath (yet) for a settlement in Cyprus

In September 2008 direct negotiations were launched in Cyprus. This round in the 44 year-old peace process represents both the last and the best chance to achieve peace on the island. The last chance because since the fateful referendum over the UN-brokered Annan Plan in April 2004, while the peace process stagnated, dynamics on the ground have reduced the likelihood of a federal solution on the island; the best chance because the peace process is led by two moderate leaders, Demetris Christofias and Mehmet Ali Talat, who have demonstrated their readiness to compromise by starting negotiations over a comprehensive settlement and agreeing on a set of confidence building measures. Yet this does not mean that a federal solution is on the short-term horizon. On the Greek Cypriot side there is still an important source of resistance against a federal power-sharing deal. On the Turkish Cypriot side, enthusiasm for federalism and EU accession in 2008 is far below what it was in 2004. Furthermore, since 2007 political turmoil in Turkey alongside the reluctance of several EU member states to proceed with Turkey’s EU accession process, might constrain the Turkish government’s ability to deliver on Cyprus. Within this context, the role of the EU in generating incentives within a Cypriot-owned and UN-mediated peace process is critical. This would mean closely monitoring the peace process and exerting pressure on all sides, delivering on the promises made to the Turkish Cypriots to lift their state of international isolation and re-energising Turkey’s accession process.