Does MENA defy gravity? how MENA has performed in its intraregional, EU and other trade: implications for EU and intra-MENA trade arrangements

The purpose of this paper is three-fold: (1) to examine the extent to which trade of MENA countries, both intra-regional trade and extra-regional, has lived up to its potential based on the gravity model and other standard determinants of trade patterns, (2) to examine alternative explanations for such discrepancies, and (3) to offer quantitative simulations of the extent to which the existing patterns could be changed by alternative trade policy or regime scenarios such as strengthened intra-MENA trade and/or strengthened MENA-EU trade.