Denmark. Send back your huddled masses

A tough anti-foreigner stance pays political dividends

DENMARK'S prime minister, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, has reason for cheer this Christmas. The economy is strong, unemployment low, his popularity high - and polls point to a victory in the next election. A recent one gave Mr Fogh Rasmussen 51.4%, against 29.9% for Mogens Lykketoft, the opposition Social Democrats' leader.

Mr Fogh Rasmussen's popularity owes much to voters' biggest worry: foreigners. His centre-right government swept to power three years ago on a promise to curb immigrants and asylum-seekers. A study by Oslo's Institute for Social Research shows that Denmark's share of asylum applications in the Scandinavian countries duly fell, from 31% in 2000 to 9% in 2003. Sweden's rose from 41% to 60%, and Norway's from 28% to 31%. This shift has raised eyebrows, particularly in Sweden, where the Social Democrat-led government has castigated Denmark's new regime and accused the government of undermining Scandinavian solidarity. The Danish laws have also been attacked by the UN's High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and by the Council of Europe's human-rights commissioner.

Yet several recent initiatives suggest that Mr Fogh Rasmussen is set on keeping the firm-on-foreigners pot boiling. Pia Kjaersgaard's Danish People's Party, the government's anti-immigrant ally, traded its votes for the 2005 budget against a new deal to expedite the repatriation of failed asylum-seekers. Another plan is to let the government choose its annual UN quota for refugees of around 500 on the basis of “integration potential ” - -so that educated young men with foreign languages would be preferred to the old and illiterate. This horrifies the UNHCR, which says refugees in its camps tend to be the weakest and most vulnerable and should not be judged by their earning potential.

Mr Fogh Rasmussen must hold an election by November 2005. Strong voter approval, a giveaway budget and a fresh clampdown on foreigners suggest that he may call it as soon as next month. The weakness of the opposition supports an early date. Mr Lykketoft is uncharismatic; and he too is talking tough on foreigners, causing rows with Marianne Jelved, leader of the Social Liberals, his likely coalition partner if he ever won power. The pair have patched up the quarrel but their disarray still works to Mr Fogh Rasmussen's benefit.

When asked to name areas where he had successfully altered attitudes during his tenure, the prime minister has no doubt. “I would think that 80-85% of the population backs the government's policy on foreigners,” he says. Illiberalism, it seems, can pay.

A tough anti-foreigner stance pays political dividends in Denmark for current prime minister, Anders Fogh Rasmussen.