Dealing with a post-BRIC Russia

In this ECFR report, ‘Dealing with a post-BRIC Russia’ by Ben Judah, Jana Kobzova and Nicu Popescu, looks at the domestic and foreign policy constraints on a post-BRIC Russia that will shape Putin’s next presidency (he is expected to win the 2012 election). It analyses how Europe should rethink its relationship with Moscow. The authors argue that:

+ The economic crisis has exposed a governance crisis inside Russia: even Putin now admits that as much as 80% of Kremlin orders have been ignored in the regions. Instead of modernising, Russia in 2010 was as corrupt as Papua New Guinea, had the property rights of Kenya and was as competitive as Sri Lanka.

+ The crisis has also prompted a foreign policy rethink inside Russia: post-BRIC Russia is now aiming for a low cost sphere of influence in the post-Soviet space and is increasingly nervous about China.

+ The EU lacks a strategy for this new Russia: Europeans have gone from thinking of Russia as a “big Poland”, that it can encourage towards liberal democracy, to a 'small China', which it can do business with but little else. But preoccupied by the economic crisis, European Union is missing an opportunity to re-engage Russia and turn it into a partner on issues of mutual concern.

+ Europe’s strategy should be to re-engage Russia whilst constraining Putin’s room for manoeuvre: for instance it should move as far as possible towards a visa-free regime, introducing a simplified electronic visa system. At the same time it should be consistent on human rights abuses by the authorities and address the energy vulnerability of neighbours such as Ukraine or Moldova vis-à-vis Moscow.