Czech politics: Klaus v Gross

Not all that good for democracy, whoever wins

THE Czech government has unravelled so far that it is hard to say even who its ministers are, let alone do useful business with them. Four ministers had quit by the start of this week, and more threatened to follow. They could not be replaced because President Vaclav Klaus was refusing the resignations, for tactical reasons. The resignation that he wanted was from the prime minister, Stanislav Gross.

Petty scandal has undone Mr Gross. He bought an apartment costing more than he could plausibly have afforded on his parliamentary salary, then explained himself so clumsily that the public and his coalition partners turned against him.

It was not all his fault. The coalition was rocky to begin with. Mr Gross's left-wing Social Democrats shared power with the centre-right Christian Democrats and a small liberal party, the Freedom Union. Mr Gross's predecessor as prime minister, Vladimir Spidla, quit last June after two futile years trying to herd the same bunch of cats. An early election then (or indeed now) would have cleared the air, but the constitution makes it hard to dissolve parliament, even when there is barely a majority for any government. As it is, parliament's term still has 15 months to run.

Few doubt that when an election does come, Mr Klaus's party, the right-wing Civic Democrats, will win. But until then, the weaker the government gets, the more influence Mr Klaus can wield as president. He is the only boss available. That deserves wider notice from the European Union, since Mr Klaus is the most Eurosceptic leader of any EU country. Most notably, he opposes ratification of the EU's new constitution.

The Civic Democrats, though they are largely Mr Klaus's creation, are less keen on rejecting the constitution, whether by referendum or by parliamentary vote (the Czechs have yet to decide how to decide). They see that a “no” vote could push the country to the edges of the European Union, perhaps even out of it entirely. But until they have power, they can duck responsibility, leaving Mr Klaus to set the tone.

Desperation may yet drive the Social Democrats to shore themselves up through a deal with the Czech Communist Party, which has been shunned by all mainstream parties since the dictatorship collapsed in 1989. Some Social Democrats want to break the taboo, but they risk splitting the party.

Last week Mr Gross survived a vote of no-confidence thanks to Communist abstentions, a sneaky sort of support. This week Mr Klaus continued to try to bully Mr Gross into seeking a positive vote of confidence. Since this could be won only with open Communist support, voters would be shocked - and even more ministers would quit.

If and when Mr Gross finally throws in the towel - June, says one person who ought to know - Mr Klaus will have several options. He can try to jawbone the main parties into early elections, or he can offer the Social Democrats another humiliating try at government, or he can name a caretaker government of his choosing and defy parliament to overturn it. The point is that in each case he will be master of the game. That will be a formidable achievement for a president who was not even directly elected - and a faintly worrying comment on Czech democracy.

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