Cyprus: Unity?

The Cyprus unification plan may be rejected by Greek-Cypriots

THE idea of shutting up Greek, Turkish and Cypriot leaders in a Swiss ski resort to get them to agree to reunify Cyprus smacked of desperation. Kofi Annan, the UN secretary-general, had failed to pull off a deal last year. This week, he failed again - though by a narrower margin. After 48 hours of argument over details, only Tassos Papadopoulos, the Greek-Cypriot leader, rejected Mr Annan's latest plan.

The plan will still be put to separate referendums on April 24th in both halves of the island. But without Mr Papadopoulos's support, Greek-Cypriot voters are likely to reject it, dashing hopes that a reunited Cyprus can join the European Union on May 1st. At least it makes a change from the years when Rauf Denktash, leader of the Turkish-Cypriots, blocked all deals. Mr Denktash, now 80, had run his fief since 1974, when Turkish troops invaded the north after a short-lived coup had tried to fuse Cyprus with Greece.

When the reunification talks resumed in Nicosia in February, Mr Denktash was as unhelpful as ever. But he decided against coming to the Swiss talks. Mehmet Ali Talat, the new Turkish-Cypriot prime minister, and his coalition partner, Serdar Denktash, who is more pro-European than his father Rauf, were anxious to make a deal. So was Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey's prime minister, who is eager to polish his country's credentials in the hope of starting EU accession talks next year.

Mr Erdogan had persuaded the Turkish generals, formerly loyal to Mr Denktash, to back a settlement. Costas Karamanlis, Greece's new prime minister, was also keen to resolve the issue. So the chances for Mr Annan's plan to reunify the island as a confederation of two republics looked good. Under the plan, some 8% of the land would be given back to the Greek-Cypriots, reducing the Turkish-Cypriot share from 37% to 29%. The Greeks would regain the port of Famagusta. The two states would largely run their own affairs, but the “United Cyprus Republic” would handle relations with the EU.

But with Rauf Denktash off the stage, Mr Papadopoulos emerged as the hard-liner. The deal fell apart over his demand for more land - four villages in the Karpas peninsula - in exchange for agreeing to the presence of more Turkish soldiers and settlers from the mainland than the Greek-Cypriots wanted. He also objected to the Turkish request for an extended transition period, written into EU law, to stop wealthy Greek-Cypriots buying up land for development in the north. On this point, he was backed by Mr Karamanlis, who otherwise kept his distance from the Greek-Cypriot leader, not least to protect his budding friendship with Mr Erdogan.

What next? A majority of Turkish-Cypriot voters will vote for the plan on April 24th, even though Rauf Denktash will campaign against it. But the Greek-Cypriots are likely to say no. That will mean that only the Greek-Cypriot republic joins the EU on May 1st. Mr Papadopoulos will be pilloried in Brussels; but he may feel that popularity at home matters more.