Cyprus. Shadowed northern lights

An election victory for moderation in north Cyprus, but still dismayingly little progress towards reunification

EVEN as the partition line through Cyprus becomes a little bit more porous, the two parts of the island feel, politically at least, like different planets. That sense cast a shadow over the victory in the parliamentary election on February 20th of Mehmet Ali Talat, prime minister of the Turkish-controlled north and a keen advocate of reunification.

On his side of the line, a recent visit by a small group of American business executives on a junket backed by the American government was seen as a small but welcome move by the United States to keep its promise to ease the isolation of the Turkish-Cypriots. The 160,000 or so residents of northern Cyprus will not, in practice, make much difference to corporate America; yet the visit outraged the Greek-Cypriots in the south who run the island's internationally recognised government. George Lillikas, the finance minister, even floated the idea of a boycott of American goods - before being countermanded by his cooler-headed colleagues.

Turkish-Cypriots say that this trade visit was a bigger morale boost than anything the European Union has done for them. The EU's inaction is all the more galling given that Turkish-Cypriots voted yes last April to a plan that would have reunited the island as an EU member - while Greek-Cypriots voted no, and then walked into the EU anyway.

Meanwhile, Tassos Papadopoulos, the Greek-Cypriot president, seems less keen than ever on reviving the UN plan in any form. He balked at a recent request by Kofi Annan, the UN secretary-general, to suggest changes. What this tough line seems to reflect is confidence that membership of the EU is strengthening the Greek-Cypriots' bargaining power, so the Turkish side can be induced to offer more.

Turkey has been told that talks on its own entry into the EU, due to start on October 3rd, will begin only if it formalises relations with all ten new EU members, including the Greek-Cypriot government. Its signature has been duly promised. Although its significance is contested, some say it means a new level of recognition for the Greek-Cypriot south.

With all these aces, some Greek-Cypriots reason, why rush back to the negotiating table? The trouble is that, on the Turkish and Turkish-Cypriot planets, things look so different. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey's mildly Islamist prime minister, had to work hard to win assent from his sceptical generals for the UN reunification plan, which would have meant pulling most of Turkey's 35,000 troops out of Cyprus. So he is in no mood to offer more concessions; he is already under fire.

In some ways, Greek-Cypriots have a point when they smugly insist that membership of the EU gives them clear tactical advantages. Some 30,000 Turkish-Cypriots have already succumbed to the lure of taking Greek-Cypriot passports, which enable them to find work outside their northern enclave, and indeed anywhere in the EU. Another 50,000 Turkish-Cypriots are said to be awaiting passports from the south. At that rate, grumbles Mustafa Akinci, a Turkish-Cypriot politician, there will be no real Cypriots left in the north of the island - only settlers from Turkey.

The rush for passports may also boost the fantasies of some Greek-Cypriots that, in the long run, the island will be reunited not under a careful UN plan, but through effective Greek domination. That is exactly why Mr Talat and many other Turkish-Cypriots want the UN process revived. Some feel it would be worth offering more sweeteners (such as reducing the Turkish garrison or more help finding the bodies of missing Greek-Cypriots) if they can shame the Greeks into coming back to the table. But the key to those offers lies in Ankara, not in Cyprus.

An election victory for moderation in north-Cyprus maybe, but still dismayingly little progress towards reunification on Cyprus.

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