Cyprus presents poser for EU decision-makers

Date: 25/09/1997

AMID the flurry of interest surrounding EU enlargement to central and eastern Europe, it is easy to overlook the clear technical leader in the race for membership.

Given growing internal EU disputes over the costs and pace of enlargement, Cyprus is the only Union applicant which can be entirely sure of starting accession talks next year.

In fact, according to the Union's entry criteria - a working economy, ability to take on the EU acquis, and respect by the legitimate government for human rights and democracy - the island could virtually join tomorrow.

Cyprus had an official per capita income of more than 11,000 ecu in 1995, its economy is still growing faster than that of most EU member states and it has close to full employment. Cypriot diplomats add that their country would even be in a position to adopt the euro in 1999, before many existing Union members.

The trouble is that politically, the Mediterranean island will be a difficult pill to swallow. Since the Turkish invasion of Cyprus in 1974, the simmering divisions have made it one of the world's most persistent trouble spots.

After more than 20 years of international diplomacy, its two communities are still unable to reach any kind of compromise on how the island should be governed, and what rights its various inhabitants should be given in a united country.

An August round of talks in Switzerland between the Nicosia government and Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash ended in dismal failure, and no new efforts are expected until next spring.

These difficulties have been compounded by threats from Denktash that without some kind of solution he will not agree to membership of the European Union. The shadow of an affronted Turkey is never far behind.

Despite these factors, EU and Cypriot diplomats are adamant that the island's troubles should have no impact on its candidacy.

Cyprus has been on the steady path towards Union accession since 1993, when the European Commission said it was ready for talks. Two years later it won a promise from EU leaders that accession talks would begin six months after the end of the Intergovernmental Conference.

EU foreign ministers reaffirmed that pledge in September this year, rejecting “any link between the talks and the start of EU accession negotiations with Cyprus”, and adding that “Cyprus' accession should benefit all the communities and lead to peace and reconciliation”.

Exactly why that might be is unclear. It appears more a matter of faith than an exhaustively analysed hypothesis that the talks will bring both sides to the table in a constructive manner. To outsiders, it seems just as likely that they might only serve to strain relations further, heightening Greco-Turkish tension into the bargain.

Perhaps an act of faith is exactly what is needed. Nicosia took a bold step recently, saying it would be willing to include Turkish representatives in the accession talks.

Although as much realpolitik as an act of charity, the move nonetheless offers a ray of hope which might not otherwise exist.

Meanwhile, just across the water, Malta - which until only recently ranked alongside Cyprus at the head of the EU queue - is now firmly opposed to Union membership.

The island is nonetheless preparing to foster closer ties with the Union and to lay the groundwork for an eventual industrial free-trade zone.