Cyprus: Making up is hard to do

Date: 21/02/04

After years of stale rows, the island needs fresh air

WHEN a dispute remains unresolved for a very long time, despite great efforts by well-meaning outsiders to sort it out, that could mean that the parties involved don't really want to see the matter settled. Each side may simply be feigning sweet reason, while nursing a secret hope that the other side will oblige by sabotaging any real progress. Might the future of Cyprus be one of those problems?

Now the island's Greek and Turkish politicians, and their respective “mother countries”, have a chance to prove the cynics wrong. Enough progress has been made to convince Kofi Annan, the UN's secretary-general, that a deal to make Cyprus a loose two-part federation - with security and prosperity guaranteed by the European Union - is at last attainable. New talks were to start this week. Both sides are under pressure to strike a deal soon, so all Cypriots can benefit when the EU enlarges in May.

What if there is no settlement by then? In that case, the Greek-Cypriot administration will join the Union alone. So how much incentive, sceptics wonder, do the Greeks have to behave constructively? Quite a lot, if they calculate wisely. Tens of thousands of Greek-Cypriots who were uprooted by fighting in 1974 would regain their homes. The broader Greek-Turkish stand-off would be greatly eased. Besides, if it looked obvious that Hellenic intransigence had wrecked the deal, the Greeks (in Athens and Nicosia) would see their moral authority collapse. That is a big price to pay at a time when competition for influence in an enlarged EU is heating up.

The stakes are high for the Turks as well. If they seem to be digging their heels in, then the people in Europe who oppose Turkey's bid to join the Union will find a new argument. So both sides have strong reasons to take risks for peace.

Can they cross the Rubicon together? It will not be easy for the island's jaded and elderly politicians to move so suddenly. For years, each side has used the (real enough) memory of horrors committed by the other as an argument for caution. On neither side has there been much self-examination. Greek-Cypriots say they were victims, not perpetrators, of the tragic events of 1974: a coup in Nicosia fomented by Greek dictators which prompted the Turkish army to overrun nearly 40% of the island. Turks retort that Greek atrocities in the 1960s gave them good them reason to live behind high walls.

Changing the music

Now these well-rehearsed tunes will have to change. Politicians who have built their careers on ritualised Greek-Turkish conflict will have to plead the interests of an entire, reunited island before the outside world. That is hard to imagine, unless wholly new thinking enters the island's political life.

The most hopeful sign is that ordinary people in Cyprus, especially on the Turkish side, helped to break the logjam. Nearly half the population of Turkish Cyprus took to the streets last year to support a settlement. The catalyst for change in the last few weeks has been a shift of ground by Turkey's generals and politicians. But people power, and the big liberal vote in December's Turkish-Cypriot election, helped to change the mood in Ankara. Indeed, if there are heroes in the island's recent history, it is the moderate Turkish-Cypriots who defied their authoritarian leaders, and in some cases risked jail by daring to criticise the army. The Greek-Cypriots should respond with a similar generosity of spirit.