Creating a “Failed State:” Scenarios for Russia’s Destabilisation of Eastern Ukraine

The presence of Russian intelligence officers during seizures of administrative buildings by local pro-Russian activists in eastern Ukraine indicates the unrest is being instigated by these agents. The population of eastern Ukraine remains largely distrustful of the new authorities in Kyiv due to security and economic concerns. The continuing armed standoff between the Ukrainian security forces and Russia-backed militants in eastern Ukraine risks disrupting the presidential election scheduled for 25 May. This conundrum will require the EU to step up its assistance to ensure the election goes forward and fair results are established despite the difficulties on the ground.