Cracks appear in climate strategy

In Bali on 3-14 December the EU aims to win support for a treaty to replace the Kyoto Protocol on climate change, in the face of resistance from the US and developing countries.

But hopes of presenting a united EU front at this United Nations conference could be jeopardised by arguments in the EU’s own backyard over the best way to reduce emissions of greenhouse gas and develop renewable energy.

Proposals for binding targets for renewable energy and reduction of greenhouse gas are due from the European Commission on 5 December. But the number of practical, political and legal difficulties to be ironed out over the next eight weeks is formidable, if the position of EU negotiations is not to be undermined by complaints from member state governments.

EU government leaders agreed in March to increase the use of renewable energy to 20% of total energy consumption by 2020, up from 7% today, and to reduce emissions of greenhouse gas by 20% by the same date. But many member states are likely to condemn any efforts by the Commission to impose a large increase in existing national renewables capacity: in effect, they claim that this would amount to interfering with the national energy mix, a prerogative jealously guarded by governments.

Even the legal grounds for a proposal are still unclear.

The 5 December plan for ‘burden sharing’ of production of renewable energy among member states was due to be proposed under the treaty’s environment article, requiring only qualified majority support from member states to become law. But according to the current EU treaty, changes to energy policy require unanimous support from member states.

A Commission official said that the correct legal basis of a renewables legislation was still under discussion and that the final proposal might need unanimous national support. "We have not yet resolved this debate," he said.

EU officials said that their working assumption was that the Commission would not risk stalling talks indefinitely by making the proposal under a legal basis requiring unanimity voting.

"That means if just one country is unhappy with its proposed target, it could have no way out," said one source close to the talks.

Some large member states also argue that reductions of greenhouse gas emissions can more easily and cheaply be met through measures other than renewables, such as energy efficiency or the use of nuclear power.

A leaked briefing note from the UK government last month stressed "the need to consider the renewable energy target within the wider context of the GHG [greenhouse gas] target at least cost and [to] support an effective EU emission trading system".

The note added: "France shares our view on the primacy of GHG targets."

British and French diplomats say that their governments remain committed to renewable energy.

"We want to be as ambitious as possible on renewables," said a French official. "We will mix efforts on emission reduction and renewable energy, because both lead to the lowering of carbon dioxides."

A UK government spokeswoman also defended her government’s position on renewables. "The UK is committed to renewable energies," she said. "What is vital is that the EU works across the board towards its primary objective of cutting emissions by 2020 by at least 20%."

She added that the Commission proposals for meeting the 20% target should take into account "the individual circumstances of each country, including their starting positions and plans to meet their overall GHG emissions reductions targets through other means".

In a bid to prevent cracks emerging at Bali, the Commission is now looking for the least sensitive way of dividing a 20% renewable energy share among 27 states. Commission sources say that the current favourite option would be to start from a baseline increase of 13% - the gap between today’s renewables consumption and the 2020 target - and either add or subtract a few percentage points for each country, depending on national energy situations.

Few countries are likely to accept a target well above current levels.

Only nine countries, none of them large member states, currently get more than the EU average of 7% from renewables. These are Latvia, Estonia, Slovenia, Lithuania, Sweden, Portugal, Finland, Austria and Denmark.

Latvia, Estonia and Slovakia this year joined Poland and Hungary in launching a legal challenge to the Commission over efforts to impose heavy targets for reduction of greenhouse gas emission for second round emissions trading.

The other four countries with over-average consumption will also be wary of adopting large - and potentially expensive - renewables targets.

Only Germany has said it could accept a huge increase in its renewables target for 2020. Sigmar Gabriel, the German environment minister, this summer said that his country should aim for a 27% share of renewables by 2020. A national strategy adopted this month commits Germany to doubling the amount of electricity generated by renewable sources by 2020.

Germany also remains committed to a total phase-out of nuclear power, unlike Belgium and The Netherlands, which have made moves to reverse previous agreements to shut down nuclear plants.

But there are doubts over whether Germany can significantly raise renewables generation from today’s levels of less than 5%.

Andris Piebalgs, the European energy commissioner, says that one solution could be to give countries the chance to meet part of their national targets by buying ‘guarantee of origin’ renewables trading certificates from other member states.

"We need to propose flexibility," Piebalgs told European Voice. "A guarantee of origin trading scheme will allow countries to develop their potential."

This would mean that a country such as Bulgaria, which has the potential to develop a large renewables market through an increased use of biomass, would be able to sell trading certificates to Luxembourg, which has little or no renewables potential.

Sceptics both within the Commission and outside still have to be convinced that a guarantee-of-origin trading scheme can be applied across all member states and energy sectors and will not let just some countries off the renewables hook altogether.

Who is renewable?

Share of renewable energy in EU countries in 2005*

Member state/% renewables in total energy consumption

Latvia: 40.03

Sweden: 29.63

Finland: 22.94

Austria: 21.22

Denmark: 13.86

Portugal: 12.82

Romania: 12.00

Slovenia: 11.07

Estonia: 10.82

Lithuania: 8.85

Spain: 6.03

France: 6.03

Italy: 5.80

Greece: 5.66

Poland: 5.42

Slovakia: 5.40

Bulgaria: 5.00

Hungary: 4.93

Germany: 4.83

Czech Rep.: 4.38

Ireland: 2.74

Netherlands: 2.64

Luxembourg: 2.42

UK: 1.61

Belgium: 1.46

Cyprus: 1.06

Malta: 0.31

Source: European Commission

*Bulgaria and Romania figures 2004

In Bali on 3-14 December the EU aims to win support for a treaty to replace the Kyoto Protocol on climate change, in the face of resistance from the US and developing countries.