COP21 and the Paris Agreement: a diplomacy masterclass in search of greater climate ambition

The Elcano Royal Institute is a think-tank for international and strategic studies that analyses world events and trends from a Spanish, European and global perspective.

The Analyses of the Elcano Royal Institute (ARI)are short pieces - of around 3,000 words - on aspects of current international affairs considered to be of relevance to Spain, its foreign policy or its security. In broad terms ARIs are intended to have a predictive bearing on events.Many key elements that led to the Copenhagen Accord have evolved in the past six years. Increased scientific evidence, updated economic analysis on the consequences of climate change, technological advances and developments in the energy sector, an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events and transformations in climate governance have created a narrow window of opportunity through which the Paris Agreement emerged.

Some of these key changes as well as the results of COP21 are critically analysed. The analysis concludes that the diplomatic success that culminated in the adoption of the Paris Agreement provides the world with a new global climate governance framework that contains valuable elements in the fight against climate change. However, current mitigation commitments will overshoot the 2°C limit by around one degree. Therefore more needs to be done and work has to start in earnest now if we are to avoid the worst consequences of a changing climate. The task at hand is herculean as solving the climate problem requires profoundly transforming productive systems and consumption patterns.

ESO: Background information: Paris Climate Change Conference - November 2015 http://www.europeansources.info/record/paris-climate-change-conference-november-december-2015/

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