Convergence of real GDP per capita in the EU15: how do the accession countries fit in?

Abstract:

The EU15 Member States' real GDP per capita levels adjusted for purchasing power converged in the time between 1960 and 2001. Convergence occurred in two periods, in 1960-1973 and 1986-2001, with an interim period of stagnation. This paper analyses these convergence trends and discusses the impact of EU membership, trade and investment. It also examines how seven accession countries fit into the historical picture of the EU15 area, such that they are well positioned to catch up with the incumbent EU countries. Although, after the mid-1990s, an increase in productivity and high investment rates supported economic growth in the accession countries, the experience of the EU15 countries shows that convergence cannot be taken for granted.