Constitution or Verhofstadt?

Every time that negotiations on EU treaty reforms get tough, the pro-integrationists threaten to forge ahead with an elite group of select member states in a core Europe or avant garde.

There are various precedents for this, foremost among them from 1984 when the then French president François Mitterand and his German counterpart chancellor Helmut Kohl raised the prospect of a Europe "at variable geometry" or a two-speed Europe, in order to put pressure on the then UK prime minister Margaret Thatcher. They wanted her to drop her opposition to far-reaching institutional reform and the pressure they brought to bear was vital to overcoming her objections to holding an intergovernmental conference (IGC) to decide the reforms to be enshrined in the Single European Act.

In 2006, in the round of discussions that followed the rejection of the EU constitution by French and Dutch voters, it was the Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt who was most vociferous in calling for a core Europe based on the eurozone.

With the German government, the current holder of the EU presidency, on course to win agreement to restart negotiations on the constitution from July, the old threats of excluding awkward member states are being dusted off again. Last week, Elmar Brok, the German centre-right MEP who was the European Parliament’s representative at the negotiations over the Amsterdam and Nice treaties summed up the case against those who do not support resurrecting the constitution as "Verfassung oder Verhofstadt" - the constitution or Verhofstadt.

Brok said that if the negotiations broke down without agreeing to keep most of the constitution, some politicians would revive plans for a "mini-Europe". Germany would take part, he said, although that option was not its first choice. Addressing reluctance in Prague and Warsaw to preserving most of the constitution, Brok said that the alternative was a "mini-Europe without the UK under French leadership". But, unlike the constitution, there would be no mention of NATO in such a pact, he said. The Czech and Polish governments, traditionally strong supporters of NATO, should reflect on that, he said. "The Polish president must explain why he doesn’t want relations with NATO put on a constitutional footing," Brok said. If a mini-Europe came about, it would mean a "new division of Europe" after the EU had reunited a once divided continent.

Brok was also ready to counter the UK’s insistence that renegotiating the constitution should be done in such a way as to avoid any major institutional changes that would require a referendum.

"Avoiding a referendum should not turn into blackmail," he said, adding that it was essential that Part I of the constitution, which deals with institutional arrangements, including the voting system, should remain untouched. He also warned against attempts to downgrade or sideline the Charter of Fundamental Rights, which was given legal status and forms Part II of the constitution. "The Charter is not to be sacrified," he said, adding that failing to stress the European Union’s values could "worsen the EU’s crisis of legitimacy" in the eyes of EU citizens. Brok maintained that Chancellor Angella Merkel saw the Charter as an "essential part of the constitution".

The German MEP, who is close to Merkel and influences CDU party thinking on Europe, said that a short IGC focusing on a very limited number of issues should suit the UK and in particular Finance Minister Gordon Brown who is expected to take over as prime minister after the summer. "We need a quick process. When Brown takes over it’s better to get this thing over with quickly rather than let it drag on into the electoral campaign," Brok said.

UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, who will be attending the June summit which is likely to decide to launch a new IGC under the Portuguese presidency in the second half of 2007, seemed to endorse this view. Speaking after the Berlin declaration was agreed on Sunday, he said the issue of the constitution "needed to be resolved and the sooner it is resolved the better".

Merkel on Sunday confirmed what Brok and Germany’s ambassador to the EU have been saying for months: that there should be a short IGC to be wrapped up by the end of the year. Concluding the negotiations by December would allow the new treaty to be ratified and come into force by 2009 when there will be elections for the European Parliament, and a new European Commission. The German presidency wants to limit the mandate of the IGC so that it can be finalised quickly. Brok warned of the dangers of "opening Pandora’s box", insisting that if Parts I and II (dealing with institutions and the Charter) were opened "no-one knows how it will be closed". He argued in particular against Polish demands to renegotiate the voting system, saying that there was an "overwhelming majority" of member states in favour of keeping the double majority system agreed as part of the constitution.

He pointed out that it would be very difficult to convince Spain to accept reopening the debate on the voting weights as Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero had accepted the constitution’s system which reduced Madrid’s voting power compared to the Nice treaty arrangements. Spanish voters had also accepted the change when they voted ‘Yes’ in their national referendum on the constitution.

Brok maintained that the constitution’s voting already addressed small- and medium-sized member states’ fears about being outvoted by large countries.

"Large member states can’t decide without the smaller member states," he said.

Verhofstadt is fighting an uphill battle for re-election in June in the Belgian federal government elections. He might not appreciate Brok brandishing his name about as a threat to convince reluctant EU leaders to sign up to keeping the constitution, in perhaps all but name. After all, by July the Belgian might be electoral history. But whatever his fate, the spectre of a two-speed Europe is bound to be evoked again over the coming months as a way of keeping up the pressure to preserve the constitution.

Every time that negotiations on EU treaty reforms get tough, the pro-integrationists threaten to forge ahead with an elite group of select member states in a core Europe or avant garde.

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