Concerns at home may boost Polish and Estonian ‘no’ ranks

Date: 14/03/02

By David Cronin

INCREASED poverty and unemployment could turn Polish voters away from supporting the country's EU membership bid in its referendum on accession, a leading US-based scholar has warned.

Professor Krzysztof Jasiewicz believes eurosceptics could consolidate gains made by two anti-EU parties, Samoobrona (Self-Defence) and the League of Polish Families, in last September's election. Between them they gained almost 20 of the vote; Jasiewicz estimates they could poach further support from the pro-EU camp if the country's jobless rate rises. It currently stands at 18.

'Euroscepticism tends to gain with negative economic trends such as high unemployment,' said Jasiewicz, of Washington and Lee University in Lexington, Virginia.

'These dominate in the media and in the mind of the public over positive trends such as low inflation or a strong domestic currency. Any worsening of economic conditions on the eve of the referendum may swing public opinion and the consequences may be both swift and far-reaching.'

In a study by the EU Accession Monitoring Programme (EMAP), a Hungarian think-tank, he also predicted that Catholic fundamentalist Radio Maryja has the 'potential to become a focal point of anti-European resistance as negotiations with the European Commission progress and the referendum draws near'.

Reaching four million regular listeners, it enjoys 'a virtual monopoly over Catholic broadcasting' in the country and was instrumental in helping the League of Polish Families win 38 seats in last autumn's poll.

Meanwhile, Professor Merje Kuus, of George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia, forecasts a similar upward swing for euroscepticism in Estonia.

Opinion polls in the Baltic state have shown support for EU membership staying below 50 for most of the past five years, with opposition to it exceeding the 50 mark at one point last year.

'The number of undecided has fluctuated widely, between one-tenth and one-half of potential voters,' he said.

'Yet despite intense government-driven information campaigns, euroscepticism has not diminished.'

Kuus argues that both pro- and anti-EU figures have drawn on Estonia's history of hardship under Soviet rule.

The former argue that EU membership is necessary to ward off a perceived threat from neighbouring Russia, while the latter are exploiting the perception that Estonia would be damaged through joining another bloc of states, just as it was hurt by being part of the Soviet Union.

'Estonian euroscepticism can be viewed not simply as a fixed conviction but as a flexible set of arguments, which has been selectively deployed in political debates,' he explained.

'It is less an example of irrational fear, ignorance or paranoia than a logical consequence of the same sense of existential threat to Estonian identity that underpins pro-EU rhetoric.'

He encourages the pro-EU side to 'alter the very premise' of the debate: 'Rather than focusing on the notion of a 'Russian threat', it might be more effective to emphasise issues more central to the European project, such as individual welfare and the quality of life.'

Increased poverty and unemployment could turn Polish voters away from supporting the country's EU membership bid in its referendum on accession, according to Professor Krzysztof Jasiewicz, a leading US-based scholar.