| Author (Corporate) | European Commission |
|---|---|
| Series Title | COM |
| Series Details | (2015) 85 final (26.2.15) |
| Publication Date | 26/02/2015 |
| Content Type | Policy-making, Report |
|
For the first time since 2007, the economies of all European Union Member States are expected to grow again in 2015. Economic activity is expected to pick up moderately in the EU and in the euro area and to accelerate further in 2016. This improvement is supported by lower oil prices, the depreciation of the euro and non-conventional measures of the European Central Bank, notably its expanded asset purchase programme. The confidence boosting effect and rapid implementation of the Commission's Investment Plan for Europe should also help strengthen the real economy. However, the recovery remains fragile, inflation remains very low and the social consequences of years of slow or no growth remain acute in several Member States. In the short term, forecast economic growth will not be high enough to deliver a marked improvement in job creation. While the unemployment rate is set to fall to 9.8% in the EU and 11.2% in the euro area in 2015, these are still unacceptably high levels and the situation is significantly worse in a number of Member States. Youth unemployment is much too high and half of all unemployed have been so for more than a year. At the same time, it is encouraging to see that the labour market reforms undertaken in recent years in several countries are starting to bear fruit and will help unemployment decrease further in 2016. The reduction in general government deficits continues, and the deficit–to-GDP ratio in the EU is expected to go down to 2.6% this year and 2.2% next year (2.2% and 1.9% in the euro area). For the EU as a whole, the debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to have peaked at 88.4% in 2014. For the euro area, it should peak this year at 94.4%, before declining. International developments add to the uncertainty about the economic prospects. These include volatility in commodity prices and energy, as well as exchange rates and financial markets, the persistence of geopolitical tensions in Europe's neighbourhood and reduced economic activity in emerging economies. In the Annual Growth Survey for 2015, the Commission presented a new jobs and growth agenda based on three mutually supporting pillars: (i) a coordinated boost to investment; (ii) a renewed commitment to structural reforms; (iii) the pursuit of fiscal responsibility. The Commission also announced it would streamline and reinforce the European Semester of economic policy coordination to open up the process, strengthen ownership and increase its effectiveness and implementation at all levels. Following this new approach, a Country Report has been produced for each of the Member States and for the euro area. They assess the progress of each Member State in addressing the issues identified in the 2014-2015 Country Specific Recommendations and – for 16 Member States – also include the outcome of the In-Depth Review warranted under the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP). On the basis of this analysis, the Commission proposes to update the status of a number of Member States under the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure. The package presented here also takes stock of the fiscal situation of the Member States, based on the Commission's latest economic forecast. For some, it takes position on further steps under the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). This assessment builds on the Commission's opinions on the draft 2015 budgetary plans for euro area Member States, issued in November 2014, as well as on the new guidance the Commission adopted on how to ensure that the common fiscal framework is supportive of the EU's jobs and growth agenda. Individual country reports are listed at http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/HIS/?uri=CELEX:52015DC0085 |
|
| Source Link | http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=COM:2015:085:FIN |
| Related Links |
|
| Subject Categories | Economic and Financial Affairs |
| Countries / Regions | Europe |
