Commission signals early accession for Croatia

Croatia could join the EU by the end of the decade, but only if the Union has first agreed on institutional reform, according to Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn.

Rehn tacitly endorsed the Croatian government’s aim of joining the Union in 2009, despite calls from some quarters for a freeze on future EU expansion.

"If Croatia is resolute in its reform," said Rehn, "Croatia could join around the end of the decade. That is as reasonable an assessment as is possible at the moment."

But, he added: "We trust that any new institutional settlement should be born by the time the next likely member state is going to join."

Rehn’s prediction is based on the scenario that work on a new institutional agreement will be completed during the French presidency of the EU in the second half of 2008.

But if that plan fails, or the new agreement runs into problems other options exist, said Vladimir Drobnjak, Croatia’s chief negotiator with the EU.

"You have two ways that [the institutional changes linked to accession] could happen," said Drobnjak. "One is by a treaty of accession, the other is via whatever will replace the constitutional treaty."

If no deal on a replacement to the constitution is found when Croatia is ready to join, "legally speaking it should not be a problem", said Drobnjak, adding: "Politically speaking we hope that it will not be a problem."

Croatia is pressing hard to be admitted to the EU on time for its candidates to run in the next European Parliament elections in 2009.

Some in Croatia fear a delay beyond 2009 would risk membership becoming linked with that of other countries in the region.

In a sign of how sensitive the issue is in Croatia, the government has been cautious about EU efforts to promote regional co-operation in the western Balkans, fearing it is the beginning of an effort to link the countries’ membership bids.

According to diplomats who are involved in switching the EU-backed Stability Pact for South-East Europe to a regionally run process, Croatian delegates appear to have a "natural reflex" against regional co-operation.

During a visit to Brussels this week, Christian Schwarz-Schilling, EU and international envoy for Bosnia and Herzegovina, outlined the need for closer co-operation in the region.

He said that there was a risk that Bosnia might fall behind, and regional co-operation on issues like tourism and trade were essential.

The Commission, which is also trying to promote regional co-operation, tried to play down fears that such comments were the thin end of a wedge.

"I don’t see the point of linking Croatia to the other countries of the western Balkans," said Rehn.

"One of the lessons we have learnt is that we have to focus more on substance and less on schedule, more on quality and less on speed. One of the logical consequences is that we have to treat each candidate state on the basis of his or her own merits."

Croatia could join the EU by the end of the decade, but only if the Union has first agreed on institutional reform, according to Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn.