Climate, Oil, and the Shifting Strategic Landscape

On 22 April 2016, representatives from 175 countries signed the Paris climate change agreement at a high-profile ceremony in New York, setting a record for the largest number of countries to sign an international treaty in one day.

The deal’s impact will lie not in its words, but in the actions that follow. And perhaps no actions will have more tangible and strategic benefits — particularly to Europe — than those that reduce the world’s oil demand.

Addressing climate change in coming decades will put further pressure on oil prices, making a return to previous highs less probable. Prices and volatility will be lower, on average, than a world without climate action. The shifting of the strategic landscape wrought by lower oil prices — in terms of regional stability, petrodollar recycling, and the transfers of wealth that shape power and capabilities — is a consideration not only for energy and climate communities, but for foreign policy and security strategists as well.

The impact of the Paris agreement may not be felt immediately, but it will be felt. A tactical orientation would ignore this; a strategic one should pay it heed.

ESO: Background information: Paris Agreement signing ceremony in New York – the EU calls for swift ratification http://www.europeansources.info/record/press-release-paris-agreement-signing-ceremony-in-new-york-the-eu-calls-for-swift-ratification/

ESO: Paris Climate Change Conference, November-December 2015 http://www.europeansources.info/record/paris-climate-change-conference-november-december-2015/

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