China rallies in Mexican stand-off

"Bienvenidos, welcome to the White House," said US President George W. Bush at last week's Cinco de Mayo celebrations.

"Obviously, Cinco de Mayo is a day of special pride for citizens of Mexico, but it is, as well, for Americans."

In part Bush was keen to celebrate this Mexican festival because of the debate raging in the US over naturalising immigrants. Nevertheless, there is an unmistakeable sense that Cinco de Mayo does not have the same historical significance for the US as it once did.

The festival is observed by Mexicans as marking victory at the battle of Puebla against France. For Americans, it was for many years a celebration of the Monroe doctrine - that European powers should not interfere in the running of the Americas.

Today, commentators and politicians alike are questioning whether the Monroe doctrine, which has underpinned the geopolitics of the region for almost 200 years, is disintegrating.

Despite Bush's instance in his first term that relations with Mexico would be at the top of his agenda, the attacks of 9/11 ensured that the Middle East and the fight against terrorism became priorities instead.

Some are now accusing the Bush administration of paying insufficient attention to Latin America.

Peter Hakim, president of the Inter-American Dialogue, a US government foundation that supports grassroots development projects in Latin America, wrote recently in the journal Foreign Affairs: "US policy on Latin America is drifting without much steam or direction."

Perhaps in a sign of that drift, Chile and Mexico, two countries with some of the closest ties with Washington, felt able to oppose the US invasion of Iraq at the United Nations Security Council.

Observers like Vanessa Matthews of the European Policy Centre say this new-found autonomy and crucially the lack of a significant US response present an opportunity for the EU to increase its influence in the region. "The Monroe doctrine is outdated," said Matthews. "The EU's relations with the region are fresher [than the US'], the EU may be more flexible...EU aid does not come with conditions, the US' does."

The major question now may be whether the EU collectively has the political will to become more involved, after years of EU policy being dominated by Spain and Portugal.

The Commission, in the shape of Jos�anuel Barroso and Benita Ferrero-Waldner, is pushing for deeper ties with the region and change may be on its way.

"The [EU Latin America and Caribbean] summit in Vienna will be a test case," said Matthews.

European success is not guaranteed. The survival of the Cuban regime has encouraged emerging Latin American petro-states, Venezuela and Bolivia, to forge policies that are independent of Washington.

Warnings from Brussels that the emerging alliance between Bolivia, Cuba and Venezuela may not be in the interest of the people of those countries or the region appear to have had little impact.

Such a warning was delivered in January by EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana to Bolivian president Evo Morales shortly after his election. But Morales, who has frequently appeared with Venezuela's Hugo Ch�z, announced on 1 May that he had decided to nationalise the oil and gas industries.

Even if the political will does exist outside Portugal and Spain for the EU to become more deeply involved in Latin America, Europe is not alone in seeking more power in Latin America.

China has been emerging as an interested party in Latin America, ever since former-president Jiang Zemin made a 13-day visit to the region in 2001.

According to figures used by the US Congress, Chinese imports from Latin America increased by 600% between 1999 and 2004.

The Chinese government has promised to invest almost EUR 80 billion in Latin America over the next decade, a significant statement of intent.

Many of these investments are aimed at helping China satisfy its seemingly insatiable appetite for energy and raw materials, sectors in which EU companies are already involved.

Beijing's campaign to isolate Taiwan may also be at the root of some of its interest in the Latin America. Of the 25 countries that have diplomatic ties with Taiwan, 12 are in the region.

But talk of a scramble for South America is misplaced, according to Matthews, who points out that so far the concerns voiced in the US and Japan about China's growing role in the region have not been echoed in Brussels. "China developing bilateral relations with Brazil does not seem to be raising concern," she said.

Article takes a look at the United States' relations with Latin America and the European Union's and China's growing involvement in the region.
Article is part of a European Voice Special Report, 'EU-Latin America'.

European Commission: DG External Relations: Regions: Latin America http://www.eeas.europa.eu/la/index_en.htm

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