Charlemagne: We told you so

Old Europe views the Iraqi mess with growing detachment

“WE SEE Iraq as a very complex country, with many different ethnic groups, a tradition of violence, and no experience of democracy. You can't create democracy with bombs.” So wrote Jean-David Levitte, the French ambassador to the United States in the New York Times in February 2003, justifying his country's opposition to the impending American invasion of Iraq. As the United States sinks deeper into trouble in Iraq, the European countries that opposed the war are resisting the temptation to gloat - at least in public. But “Old Europe” also seems less and less inclined to try to lend a helping hand. As a result, the transatlantic rift that opened up because of Iraq shows little sign of healing. On the contrary, it may widen.

As recently as a couple of months ago, it seemed that even France and Germany might eventually be persuaded to play some positive role in Iraq. But as the security situation has deteriorated, the notion that more European countries might be persuaded to commit troops to Iraq - perhaps under NATO or the UN - has lost plausibility. The struggle now is to persuade those already there, like the Italians and Poles, not to follow the Spanish and pull out. Philip Gordon of America's Brookings Institution, who has just co-authored a study of the diplomatic crisis over Iraq (“Allies at War”, published by McGraw-Hill) says: “Until a couple of months ago, I was optimistic that Europe and America could put this behind us.” But he is now “deeply pessimistic” about the chances of a new transatlantic accord over Iraq, at least until after the American presidential election.

A well-placed EU diplomat agrees. He argues that almost everybody thinks that the Americans are now looking for a way out. “People don't want to be associated with something that looks much more likely to be a failure than a success. There is also a suspicion that it may anyway be too late for the mantle of internationalism to have any effect on the ground in Iraq.”

The day-to-day situation in Iraq itself is sufficiently alarming for worries about the long-term future of the transatlantic alliance to seem a little abstract. But on a range of issues - terrorism, trade, Palestine, China - co-operation and agreement between the United States and Europe still matters hugely. The concern now is that the Iraqi mess will embolden those in Europe who want to portray America as a dangerous, immoral power that needs countering. Already, European politicians have won elections by running against the American government. Gerhard Schroder blazed the trail when he came from behind to win the German election of September 2002 by attacking the Bush administration over Iraq. José Lus Rodriguez Zapatero repeated the trick in Spain, campaigning against the “illegal and unjust war” in Iraq - and gaining an unexpected victory after the Madrid bombing of March 11th made his arguments seem more attractive to Spanish voters.

When Bush-bashing pays

Now Romano Prodi, who shamelessly combines the role of head of the European Commission with that of leader of Italy's left, is trying the same tactic. This week election posters went up in Italy, featuring a smiling Prodi next to the slogan: “Iraq, a mistaken war”. Those who hoped the Madrid bombing would convince Europeans they are part of the same “war on terror” as America have been disappointed. On the contrary, one prominent member of the European Commission sums up the conventional wisdom as follows: “Because of the Iraq war, the threat of terrorism is now ten times worse than when Saddam was in power.” As Bill Drozdiak, head of the Brussels-based Transatlantic Centre, sees it: “Europeans see the biggest threat to their security as Americans dragging them into a foreign war.”

As the possibility of serious European engagement in Iraq recedes, so it becomes easier for European politicians to retreat into sloganising about Iraq: calling for the withdrawal of troops, a UN presence and a sovereign Iraqi government - while gliding over the tiresome details of just how all this might be achieved. If “old Europe” has a policy on Iraq now, it is to pray for a Kerry victory in November. But they may be disappointed even if their prayers are answered. Charles Kupchan of America's Council on Foreign Relations argues that while “Europeans are hoping that a Kerry administration would execute a 180-degree turn on foreign policy, it's more likely to be a 20% adjustment.” Mr Kerry was swift to condemn the withdrawal of Spanish troops from Iraq. And he is unlikely to endorse two other key elements of old European conventional wisdom - the notions that a Middle East peace deal is there for the taking, if only America would put pressure on Israel; and that American military action can be legitimate only if it receives the prior approval of the UN.

Such disagreements suggest the estrangement between much of Europe and the United States goes well beyond Iraq and the policies of the Bush administration. Mr Kupchan has just directed a Council on Foreign Relations report on “Renewing the Atlantic Partnership”, which features the distilled wisdom of luminaries such as Henry Kissinger and Lawrence Summers, the president of Harvard. It makes some ho-hum recommendations about the need for Europeans and Americans to “make an effort to achieve a common position” on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and “to agree on the role of multilateral institutions”. And it ends on a note of obligatory optimism about the possibility of “enlightened leadership”, restoring the Atlantic partnership. Yet the report also considers a darker scenario: “If Europe defines its identity in terms of countering U.S. power, the world is likely to return to a balance-of-power system reminiscent of the era prior to World War I - with the same disastrous consequences.”

The idea that Europe and America might actually come into armed conflict still seems absurd. But the notion that Europeans and Americans may increasingly be rivals rather than partners seems less implausible than it once did.

Commentary feature. 'Old Europe' views the Iraqi mess with growing detachment. The feature looks at the implications for US-Europe relations and suggests that the future might lie in the two blocs seeing each other as rivals rather than partners.