Central Europe’s elections: Populists, ahoy

Few voters, and those who turned out were anti-government or anti-EU

INDIFFERENCE, incomprehension and a sunny weekend combined to produce low turnouts and volatile results across central Europe in the first elections to the European Parliament after last month's enlargement of the European Union. Average turnout in all ten new member countries was 27%, compared with 50% in the old EU 15. Of the eight new central European members, only Lithuania had a turnout above the EU average, and then only because it held a presidential election at the same time. Slovakia, with a turnout of 16.7%, set the record for abstention.

In every country bar Slovakia, voters turned against incumbent governments. The ferocity with which they did so may even unseat one prime minister, Vladimir Spidla in the Czech Republic. His Social Democrats finished fifth, with just 8.8%, leaving Mr Spidla to face a confidence vote from his party's central committee next month. Conservative parties jealous of national sovereignty did well: they included Fidesz in Hungary, Civic Platform in Poland, and the Civic Democrats in the Czech Republic.

If few voters are interested in the European Parliament, their politicians certainly are. Many will give up national parliamentary seats for European ones. The region's new MEPs will include former prime ministers, such as Jerzy Busek from Poland and Alojz Peterle from Slovenia, and former foreign ministers such as Toomas Ilves from Estonia and Bronislaw Geremek from Poland.

In Poland, the biggest new member, barely one-fifth of the electorate voted. They distributed their support widely, so Poland's 54 MEPs will be divided among as many as seven party groupings. First and third places went to centre-right parties, Civic Platform and Law & Justice; second to a Catholic nationalist party, the League of Polish Families; and fourth to a left-wing farmers' movement, Selfdefence. Selfdefence did worse than expected, because some voters defected to the League of Polish Families, perhaps impressed more by its outright hostility to the EU than by Selfdefence's calls to “re-negotiate” the terms of entry. The League denounces the EU as a vehicle for German domination, and looks forward to amiable relations with the UK Independence Party. “We would like to see the European Union disintegrate,” explains Maciej Giertych, one of its successful candidates helpfully.

Poland's ruling Socialist party, the SLD, came fifth with 9.3% of the vote - a humiliating tally, but a recovery from even worse figures in recent polls. Scandals and a weak economy brought the SLD so low that its leader, Leszek Miller, resigned as prime minister in May, leaving behind a minority government struggling to stave off early elections under a caretaker prime minister, Marek Belka. The result may help Mr Belka to win a confidence vote next week, by suggesting that an early election would mean a hopelessly fragmented parliament. But even if opposition parties let Mr Belka's government survive, it might remain in office only until next spring. This week Mr Belka was heading for the EU summit in Brussels, sure to be denounced by other EU leaders if he failed to lift Polish objections to the draft EU constitution, but sure to be denounced by three-quarters of his parliament at home if he did lift them.

In Hungary, voters gave a handsome victory to the main conservative opposition party, Fidesz, but not so crushing a one as to threaten the prime minister, Peter Medgyessy. The Socialists now hope that an improving economy will lift their chances when a general election comes round in 2006. Meanwhile, the victory of the right-wing Civic Democrats in the Czech Republic may prove less significant than the strong showing by the unreformed Communist Party, which finished second with 20% of the vote. The result can only add to pressure for the Social Democrats to move left, seeking support from the communists and perhaps even an alliance after years of shunning them.

In Slovakia, by contrast, there was strong support for the ruling centre-right coalition, albeit on a very low turnout. The explanation may be that the country's protest voters were already appeased by their success in April's presidential election, when they rejected the government's candidate in favour of a minor opposition figure, Ivan Gasparovic. With the protest vote diminished, even a little support for the government went a long way.

Elsewhere among new members, Estonians voted for a centre-left party to rebuke their centre-right government, while Latvians and Slovenians voted for right-wing parties to rebuke centre-left governments. A new left-wing party, the Labour Party, did best in Lithuania, apparently winning over voters angered or confused by the impeachment of President Rolandas Paksas earlier this year. Valdas Adamkus, who lost to Mr Paksas in 2003, won a first round of voting to succeed him. He faces a run-off on June 27th against Kazimira Prunskiene, a centre-left candidate who was helped into second place by an endorsement from Mr Paksas.

The European elections were marked by apathy and anger. This article says there were few votes in Central European countries for the EP elections, June 2004, and those who turned out were anti-government or anti-EU.

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