Caution: The Irish might guillotine Lisbon

Supporters and opponents of the Lisbon Treaty from across Europe will watch with bated breath as Irish voters go to the polls in the only referendum on the text on 12 June. If the Irish say ‘Yes’, Ireland will become the 16th EU country to ratify the treaty, virtually assuring its uneventful passage through the parliaments of the other 11 member states. Polls show the ‘Yes’ side maintains a fragile lead, but there is a real risk that the traditionally pro-European Irish could vote ‘No’, thereby blocking reforms that the EU’s governments say are vital to its future. More importantly, a ‘No’ would land a critical blow to the morale of Europe’s political establishment and force the EU into a further bout of negotiations about institutions and rules. The likely outcome of the referendum is a close result that will be determined by the level of voter turn-out.