Brexit and climate change: recalibration ahead

The Elcano Royal Institute is a think-tank for international and strategic studies that analyses world events and trends from a Spanish, European and global perspective.

The Analyses of the Elcano Royal Institute (ARI)are short pieces - of around 3,000 words - on aspects of current international affairs considered to be of relevance to Spain, its foreign policy or its security. In broad terms ARIs are intended to have a predictive bearing on events.Climate change politics is not for the faint-hearted. After 25 years of painstaking international climate negotiations, the Paris Agreement was finally adopted last December. Just over six months after this great diplomatic success, the UK has voted to leave the EU. With this decision uncertainty reigns once more in climate politics.

Internationally, the ratification of the Paris Agreement by the EU is very likely to be delayed. Despite recent statements reassuring investors that climate commitments and ambition are unaffected by Brexit, they could waver both in the UK and the EU. Delays and lower ambition could tarnish the expectations of a low-carbon future, key for long-term investment. There is currently no way of telling with any degree of certainty what the divorce will entail for EU-UK climate relations. At best, cooperation and policy coordination will prevail between these life-long partners.