Bosnia towards the unknown

Visibly angry and expressing grave concerns about the future, Adnan Terzic does not behave like a man who could be on the verge of becoming the leader of a fully sovereign Bosnia and Herzegovina.

The Bosnian prime minister's demeanour is not the most bubbly at the best of times, but during a recent visit to Brussels it was absolutely flat.

The issue causing Terzic such concern was the announcement that the Office of the High Representative (OHR) in Bosnia and Herzegovina would close within a year. Although inconsequential sounding, in practice the OHR is the UN's powerful 'vizier' who has the authority to sack ministers and impose legislation.

Terzic does not want the OHR, along with its so-called Bonn powers, to disappear before Bosnia's path to the EU is assured.

According to Terzic, the only way of that happening is if a Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) is signed with the EU - an important step toward EU membership.

Following a meeting in Brussels on 28 June with Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn, Prime Minister Adnan Terzic dropped all diplomatic niceties to express his concern about the move.

"I believe it is a mistake to close down the Office of the High Representative before we have the SAA...Commissioner Rehn does not share the same opinion."

Commenting on his talks with Rehn about the future of Bosnia he was even blunter. "I did not see any signals that would encourage me," he said. "The Office of the High Representative must be there when things go in the opposite direction of the SAA."

Many Bosnian Muslims fear that without the anchor of the OHR, or further EU integration, the Serb-dominated portion of the country, Republika Srpska, will drift towards independence, or Serbia, possibly stoking more ethnic conflict.

But it is the disagreements between the central authorities in Sarajevo and the Republika Srpska which are holding back the police reforms that the EU wants to see before it finalises the agreement and the constitutional overhaul that is needed for Bosnia to run its own affairs effectively.

Talks on the SAA began in November 2005, making Bosnia and Herzegovina the last country in the western Balkans to embark on this essential step toward EU membership.

Serbia and Montenegro are the only other western Balkan countries not to have completed SAA talks.

The Commission is about to present its revised negotiating positions for Serbia and Montenegro, an action made necessary by Montenegro's recent independence.

With the threat of Bosnia's political reform stalling, the EU's special envoy to Bosnia, Christian Schwartz-Schilling, who also serves as the UN High Representative, said that the planned transition of his UN post to an exclusively EU position, without Bonn powers, must go ahead.

According to Schwartz-Schilling, signing a Stabilisation and Association Agreement with the EU by the end of this year is "very much within the realm of the possible". But it must be reached through Bosnian politicians reaching agreement.

According to Schwartz-Schilling, this autumn's elections will be crucial in deciding the international community's future role.

A deadline for closing the office of the high representative has been set for 30 June 2007, although this date will be "reviewed and confirmed" in February next year.

Between the presidential and parliamentary elections in November and the February decision, Schwartz-Schilling said that he expected to see substantial progress on police and constitutional reform which has so far been deadlocked.

"Bosnia and Herzegovina cannot continue as a protectorate of Europe," he said, adding that local politicians had "to take responsibility toward their citizens".

He was resolute: "If you don't give them a learning curve then they will never make the transition."

Whether Terzic likes it or not, he and his colleagues may soon have to take control of a fully sovereign Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Visibly angry and expressing grave concerns about the future, Adnan Terzic does not behave like a man who could be on the verge of becoming the leader of a fully sovereign Bosnia and Herzegovina.