Blow to Ireland’s ratification hopes

Date: 05/03/1998

By Rory Watson

THE combination of a loosely worded question, unexpected by-elections and uncertainty over vital negotiations on the future of Northern Ireland have ruled out Ireland's chances of being the first member state to ratify the Amsterdam Treaty.

The Irish government has had to abandon its original timetable for a referendum on the treaty after opponents claimed that the question being put to the electorate was so loosely framed that a 'yes' vote would give it a blank cheque on any future EU policy.

They successfully argued that endorsement of the government's request “to be able to exercise the options and concessions specified in the treaty” could even allow it to sign up to a common defence policy without consulting the electorate.

Although it denied any such intention, the government was nevertheless forced to go back to the drawing-board and has now specified that the option for closer EU integration would apply only to participation in the border-free Schengen Convention, future free movement provisions and the police cooperation referred to in the treaty.

In such circumstances, a 'yes' vote in the referendum would require the government to seek the approval of the Irish parliament, rather than the electorate at large, for Irish involvement in specific EU measures.

These arguments, plus the politicians' current preoccupation with two key by-elections, have already forced Dublin to postpone the vote until May.

But the EU vote could be delayed even further following the recent announcement that the Irish government intends to hold a referendum on the outcome of the Northern Irish peace talks on 7 May.

“Northern Ireland and the prospect of a settlement after so long is so important that you could not hold the two referendums on the same day, and it could even be July before the Amsterdam Treaty is put to the people,” predicted one Irish observer.

Ireland is not the only member state facing unexpected ratification hurdles. Belgium too has encountered problems, although support for the treaty is not in doubt in either country.

Belgium's potential difficulties stem from traditional internal arguments between the country's French and Dutch-speaking politicians. A dispute in the bilingual region of Brussels has led Dutch-speaking Volksunie representatives to withdraw from the local parliament.

If they maintain their boycott, it will be impossible for the region to get the majority required within each language group to ratify the treaty. In a bid to remove this potential log-jam, Belgian constitutional lawyers are examining whether the Amsterdam Treaty affects the powers of the country's three regional governments. If they conclude that it does not, the treaty bill might only need to be approved by the federal government and the three language-based community assemblies.

Germany now looks likely to be the first member state to ratify the agreement. Bonn expects to complete its procedures during April or May, with Austria and Luxembourg working to a similar timetable. With approval of the treaty virtually assured in 14 member states, its ultimate fate will be decided by the Danish referendum on 28 May.