Black Sea Regional Dynamics: Balanced Multipolarity in Action

Abstract:

Recent events and hostilities around the Black Sea make the European Union’s strategy of bringing peace and stability to the region look more hopeless than ever whilst the majority of people in the region are looking for hope. However, previous research has suggested that in the future there is a possibility of a ‘pluralistic security community’ arising in the region based on ‘balanced multipolarity’ as a necessary but not sufficient condition.

1 Russia’s president would seem to be testing the theory that the Black Sea Region consists of four poles (Russia, Turkey, the European Union (EU) and the United States) which are interconnected in a condition of balanced multipolarity, by trying to re-establish the region as Russia’s own sphere of influence.

This article analyses the current dynamics of the region, asking whether the situation is more akin to bipolarity or unbalanced multipolarity before arguing that the situation is one of ‘balanced multipolarity in action’. If this is the case then, when the ‘action’ ends, there may still be the possibility of a future non-hegemonic security community.

Both the EU and Russia would be members of this loosely connected community which would pose no threat to either and could help to avert future disasters. This could fit well with the new 2016 EU strategic direction.