Better prospects for Turkey’s EU ambitions

Date: 15/01/04

THE bombers who launched deadly attacks against Jewish and British targets in Istanbul last November not only killed themselves in the process, but harmed their own cause. This was, in part at least, to oppose European influences in Turkey and to reclaim the country for militant Islamism.

Their actions created a backlash among the Turkish population, reinforced the government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan in its pro-western course and provoked a wave of sympathy across Europe, which can only help Turkey in its quest for EU membership.

The calm, professional way in which the government dealt with the aftermath of the bombings was taken by the European Commission as a sign of its maturity, and confirmed its growing conviction that the Turks are now on the right track for accession negotiations.

This was already evident in its 2003 Regular Report on Turkey's Progress towards Accession. This described the progress made in far warmer terms than in the previous year, saying that "the

Turkish government has shown great determination in accelerating the pace of reforms, which have brought far-reaching changes to the political and legal system".

If the report was generous in its assessment, it did not, however, seek to minimize how much more needs to be done. Turkey, it said, "should address the outstanding issues with particular attention to the strengthening of the independence and the functioning of the judiciary, the overall framework for the exercize of fundamental freedoms (association, expression and religion)".

The decision on whether to open negotiations will be made at the European Council in December. The present Commission has undertaken to produce its recommendation before the end of its term on 1 November.

The logic of its last report strongly implies that, if the Erdogan government achieves as much during its second year in office, its application will be endorsed.

There is, however, one major stumbling block - Cyprus. The island is due to join the EU on 1 May and, unless the breakaway Turkish Republic of North Cyprus reaches an agreement with the Greek Cypriots before then, only the southern part will be admitted. This would seriously compromise Turkey's own chances of membership.

Within the past week, Erdogan has moved sharply to avert this catastrophe. Last Thursday (8 January), he summoned the leaders of the four main Turkish Cypriot parties, and told them bluntly that they must quickly form a government and reach a settlement, through the United Nations, with the Greek Cypriot leadership before 1 May.

The effect of his words was immediate. On Sunday, Mehmet Ali Talat, the leader of the main pro-EU party, the Republican Turkish Party (CTP), met with Serdar Denktash, leader of the formerly anti-EU Democrat Party (DP), and agreed to form a coalition government, with Talat as premier. Denktash, who is the son of Turkish Cypriot President Rauf Denktash, has been given the job of deputy premier and foreign minister.

The new government has 26 seats in the 50-member parliament, which was equally split between pro- and anti-EU parties in the elections on 14 December. Serdar Denktash, who had always been less hard-line than his father, has signed up to a programme of "national reconciliation", with a firm commitment to achieve a solution of the Cyprus issue by 1 May.

As soon as the announcement of the new government was made, Erdogan met the senior Denktash to discuss ways to revive the peace talks between Greek and Turkish Cypriots. Both leaders announced that they were "in perfect harmony", and Denktash gave his blessing to the new coalition government.

It looks as though Erdogan may finally have done what the EU has consistently urged on successive Turkish leaders. This was to put the screws on Denktash, who is in a weak position to resist the will of Turkey, which still maintains 30-40,000 troops in northern Cyprus.

Erdogan's predecessors always balked at pressurizing Denktash, who had close links with conservative elements on the Turkish mainland, particularly with the military. Their position has weakened considerably since the landslide victory of Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) in November 2002.

Erdogan has called a meeting of the National Security Council for later this month, at which he will seek endorsement for his own (so far private) proposals for relatively modest amendments to the UN proposals, which were accepted by the Greek Cypriot side. If he gets his way, the Cyprus problem may at last be solved.

Yet even this will not guarantee a smooth ride for Turkey. The tide, however, seems to be running strongly in the country's favour. The Greeks, once intractable foes, have now become their strongest sponsors and, over the past year, most member states have overcome their misgivings.

"Already a year ago, a large minority was in favour: now it is a large majority," an EU diplomat said. There are now only three member states that remain opposed: one is France, though President Jacques Chirac is known to be personally in favour. The other two are Austria and the Netherlands. As the Dutch will hold the presidency in the second half of this year, their resistance, if maintained, could prove extremely awkward.

On balance, however, I believe membership negotiations will begin early in 2005. As for Erdogan, if he pulls it off, he will surely be seen as Turkey's most successful leader since Kemal Ataturk.

• Dick Leonard is former assistant editor of The Economist and writes on Belgian affairs for The Bulletin. He is a former UK Labour MP and the author of numerous books.

Talks with the Turkish Government in Ankara over future European Union membership for Turkey now look more likely than ever.