Battle for succession hots up

Date: 14/12/1995

By Rory Watson

GREECE is bracing itself for the end of an era as the pace speeds up in the race to succeed ailing Socialist Prime Minister Andreas Papandreou.

Within the ruling PASOK party, support is coalescing around two former economic ministers, Costas Simitis and Gerasimos Arsenis, as the prime minister's condition worsens.

The opposition New Democracy is seeking to speed up the country's exit from the political no-man's-land it has entered by calling on PASOK's parliamentary group to elect a new prime minister. “It is obvious that even if the premier recovers, he will unfortunately not be able to resume his duties. It is a national necessity to solve the problem of the country's government,” claimed New Democracy leader Miltiades Evert.

The 76-year-old Papandreou's condition deteriorated this week after he had appeared to be making a slow recovery from pneumonia, failing kidneys and a tracheotomy operation.

His place at this weekend's Madrid summit will be taken by his close colleague, the Interior Minister and acting Prime Minister Akis Tsohatzopoulos.

Although considered an early front-runner in the succession stakes, the interior minister is now thought to be trailing both Simitis and Arsenis. Analysts are divided over the direction each of the former economics ministers would take PASOK and the country.

“Basically the room for manoeuvre, particularly on economic issues, is very limited. They are determined by the Maastricht convergence criteria for a single currency and both are committed to them,” said one seasoned observer.

While there is almost universal agreement that the pro-EU Simitis, who first tried to force Papandreou to retire some months ago, attaches a high priority to the Maastricht criteria, some believe that Arsenis, now defence minister, might be tempted to relax them in a bid to win support from PASOK hardliners with an eye on the next general election which is two years away.

When it happens, the change of prime minister is likely to bring back two of the country's more charismatic and pro-European politicians: the former European Affairs Minister Theodoros Pangalos and former Social Affairs Commissioner Vasso Papandreou (no relation to the current premier).

The first, who played a central, and at times controversial role during Greece's last EU presidency, is tipped as a possible foreign minister. The second, whose widespread political popularity has not been rewarded with domestic office since leaving Brussels three years ago, could be offered one of the key internal portfolios.

Whatever the outcome, the Athens government is likely to continue to express concern at the growing trend for the Union to conclude generous trade agreements with countries, many of whose exports are in direct competition with Greek produce.

At the same time, the very real possibility of peace in the former Yugoslavia is increasingly being seen as an opportunity for Greece to re-open overland trade routes and reverse the recent downward trend in the value of its exports to the rest of the Union.

Simitis, who sought to bring order to Greece's economy in the mid-Eighties by implementing a stabilisation programme, resigned earlier this year over the government's failure to privatise the country's largest shipyard. His position on the backbenches has already enabled him to raise the politically-sensitive question of Papandreou's succession and push the cause of modernisation in the party.

“This vacuum of responsibility can no longer exist. The country needs viable, effective decisions to inspire trust and credibility,” he said late last week.

Arsenis, who fell out with Papandreou in the early Eighties and briefly formed his own political party, is now back in the PASOK fold. His ministerial position makes talk of succession harder and he will need the backing of PASOK loyalists - some of whom may have misgivings after his earlier absence from the party - if he is to be chosen as premier by its 170 parliamentary deputies.

Major questions remain in the unfolding drama of Greek politics, such as the view of Papandreou himself, his wife and politically-ambitious chief of staff, Dimitra Liani. Under Greece's constitution, a premier may only be replaced if he resigns or dies.

As one of Greece's most charismatic leaders this century struggles against fading health, he has yet to indicate whether he will be tempted to cling on to power, bless a successor or let rival factions fight it out.