Battle for Croatian presidency takes off

by Helena Varendorff

Date: 28/10/04

AFTER weeks of uncertainty as to whether Croatia's ruling centre-right party, HDZ (Croatian Democratic Union), would put forward a candidate in the forthcoming presidential elections, and after interminable speculation as to who the best candidate might be, someone has finally been named.

In a bid to prevent a one-man show for Stjepan Mesic, the incumbent president, the Prime Minister of Croatia, Ivo Sanader, announced that the HDZ's presidential candidate would be Jadranka Kosor, currently vice-president and minister of the family, veterans' affairs and inter-generational solidarity.

It is striking that a woman has been chosen to represent the conservatives in this patriarchal country. Many believe she is the only politician who stands a chance against the current president. Kosor, 51, will be the second woman running for presidency in the history of this 14 year-young state. But she is unlikely to be the first one to win. Most Croatian analysts believe that President Mesic will triumph. But probably not in the first round, since the large number of popular candidates might force a second round. Among them is the former national football coach, Miroslav Ciro Blazevic, running as an independent. A former HDZ official and a close Tudjman associate, Ivic Pasalic, is running for the presidency with his own party, the Croatian Block (HB).

While Mesic will probably be supported by the centre-left opposition coalition, Kosor may have only the official support of her own party and the full support of Premier Sanader. Indeed, Kosor is perceived to be Sanader's 'player', making many voters doubtful that she would act independently.

The Croatian media seem to have started an anti-Kosor campaign of their own, calling her a "pathetic politician" and a "Croatian Mother Teresa". Kosor had a popular radio programme for refugees during the war years (1991-95), which aided her entry into politics. Refugees, war veterans, disabled persons and "those people who are on the margins of society, who are forgotten, women who are discriminated and exploited, paid too little or exposed to violence" are some of the votes Kosor is seeking.

The numbers of these potential voters are not negligible. In a country of 4.5 million, the registered unemployment rate is 17.6%; 773,000 citizens, or 18.2%, are considered to be living at or below poverty level; there are about 35,000 veterans who are invalids; the suicide rate is one of Europe's highest. An average net salary is the equivalent of around €580, which is not worth much in a country where prices are as high as almost anywhere else in western Europe.

The date of the presidential elections is not yet fixed, but will probably be 2 January, 2005.

The next president of Croatia might have to deal with the arrest of the runaway former Croatian army General, Ante Gotovina and his extradition to The Hague Tribunal. Most certainly, he or she will have to confront the present border dispute with Slovenia - another possible hurdle in Croatia's bid for EU membership.

Over the last few months, Croatia and Slovenia have had a number of incidents along their disputed border both in the Adriatic Sea and on the mainland, most of which were seen as part of the election campaign for Slovenian politicians. Slovenia's probable future prime minister, Janez Jansa, was quoted as saying that, although he is not very optimistic, there is still space for bilateral talks and Slovenia would support Croatia on its way to the EU membership.

• Helena Varendorff is a freelance journalist.

After weeks of uncertainty as to whether Croatia's ruling centre-right party, HDZ (Croatian Democratic Union), would put forward a candidate in the 2004 presidential elections, and after interminable speculation as to who the best candidate might be, Jadranka Kosor, Vice-president and Minister of the Family, Veterans' affairs and Inter-generational Solidarity was named.