Balkans are high on the agenda

Date: 22/12/05

In 2006 the Balkans is unlikely to witness the disintegration and descent into violence that came to define 1991. Yet it is likely to prove to be another remarkably difficult year for the region as borders are once again redefined and redrawn.

And it will come down to Austria to lead the EU in its response.

A referendum on independence in Montenegro is expected in mid-spring, and experts predict that by the middle of the year discussions over Kosovo's final status will have begun to come to a head.

Already Serbian President Boris Tadic« has warned that violence could flare in Kosovo. In Montenegro, talk of seccession has been answered with talk of regional counter seccession.

But perhaps Europe and the international community today look more like a substantial external anchor than they did a decade and a half ago when the then Luxembourg presidency optimistically declared that the hour of Europe had come.

Along with the real prospect of EU membership, the countries of the region could scarcely hope for a more engaged country at the helm of the EU than Austria.

Historically Vienna's interest in the Balkans has ranked alongside that of Russia and the Ottoman Empire. As a continuation of this interest, over the next six months the Austrian government is planning to organise a series of meetings to discuss the region. These are expected to culminate in talks at an informal meeting of foreign ministers in Salzburg on 10-11 March.

Austria has long been a strong backer of early EU membership for the countries of the region, lobbying successfully for the EU to open accession negotiations with Croatia on 4 October. After a survey of the current situation, accession talks with Croatia are expected to begin in earnest under the Austrian presidency.

Talks on so-called Stabilisation and Association Agreements with Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Serbia and Montenegro will also take place during Austria's stewardship.

But the challenge may be for Austria to reconcile its own agenda for the region with that of 24 other interested parties amid competing interests.

The Thessaloniki consensus of 2003, promising membership to all the countries of the Western Balkans, has been called into question by the rejection of the EU constitution in France and the Netherlands and most recently by France's linking of Macedonia's membership bid with the future of the EU budget.

And as in 1991 in the wake of Croatia's declaration of independence, there are already signs that the EU's policy is fracturing over Kosovo's own independence.

The Czech Prime Minister Jiri Paroubek has called for a division of the province along ethnic lines, while Slovenia has backed full independence and some other EU Mediterranean members are said to be concerned by either prospect.

With the EU set to play a substantial role in the future of the province, whatever the outcome of those talks, and whatever Austria's engagement, it no doubt faces a difficult task in bringing all the parties together.

Vienna will also have to host a major EU-Latin America summit, which will showcase the new strategy on Latin America devised by its former foreign minister Benita Ferrero-Waldner, now external relations commissioner, and a June EU-US summit.

Article is part of a European Voice Special Report previewing the Austrian Presidency of the European Union, January - June 2006. Austria will represent the EU in what is expected to be a difficult year in the Western Balkans.