Balancing EU enlargement

Public scepticism towards enlargement, following the accession of ten members in May 2004, with two more to join on 1 January 2007, and the rejection of the EU constitution in France and the Netherlands in spring 2005 have strongly marked the European Commission’s strategy on enlargement.

It was a tough start for Olli Rehn, who had been enlargement commissioner for six months at the time of the vote in France. But the Finn remained determined that the EU would fulfil its commitments to expand to Albania, Turkey and the countries of the former Yugoslavia, although the Union would be more cautious about making more promises. This way, the Commission argues, the EU can continue to influence reforms in the countries on its eastern borders, while making accession a lengthier and more difficult process to complete.

The Commission’s policy has not always been helped by EU government leaders. It has constantly been called into question by French President Jacques Chirac and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who have cast doubts about Turkey’s chances of ever joining the Union or about the Balkan candidates’ preparedness.

At the same time, the countries that joined the EU shortly before Rehn’s arrival have pressed hard for their Balkan and eastern European neighbours to be allowed to join the Union.

Pressure for further expansion was amplified by the revolutions in Georgia and Ukraine, as well as a foreign policy revolution in Moldova. The European Neighbourhood Policy, which aims at stepping up co-operation with states on the EU’s borders but stops short of offering membership, has not prevented the three from calling for accession.

Rehn, who last week (8 November) unveiled a strategy paper on enlargement, promised impact assessments at all stages of the accession process to ensure the EU’s ability to absorb new members and to make sure that potential members are ready to join the EU.

The paper pointed out that the EU’s ability to function and to meet its political and economic goals would be taken into account before future accessions would go ahead.

The Commission’s new enlargement strategy is based on three pillars: making no new commitments, employing strict rules on existing commitments and promoting enlargement at home.

The accession of Bulgaria and Romania on 1 January is the only expansion to take place under the current Commission. Both Rehn and Commission President José Manuel Barroso said there would be no further enlargements until a new institutional settlement is agreed in the EU, meaning 2009 at the earliest.

But the EU’s cautious approach towards enlargement risks fuelling frustration in candidate countries.

In Turkey, where support for the EU was once at 80%, public approval of the EU is now only 35%.

Public scepticism towards enlargement, following the accession of ten members in May 2004, with two more to join on 1 January 2007, and the rejection of the EU constitution in France and the Netherlands in spring 2005 have strongly marked the European Commission’s strategy on enlargement.