Bagehot. The think that won’t go away

Tony Blair has found a way to deal with the awful prospect of a European referendum: not thinking about it

IT WAS supposed to be a great day. But the grinning and back-slapping of the heads of government who assembled in Brussels on October 29th to sign the draft European Union constitutional treaty was even more forced than usual.

For President Jacques Chirac of France and Chancellor Gerhard Schroder of Germany, the document falls far short of their integrationist ambitions. For the leaders of most of the smaller countries, it gives too much power to the “bigs”. But for Tony Blair, it's much worse than that. Even though Britain's negotiators (to the irritation of the French and Germans) managed to get much of what they wanted, the document that Mr Blair was putting his name to will quite probably cost him his job.

It is still possible that voters in one or more of the other signatory countries will vote the treaty down before Britain holds its referendum in 2006 (March has supposedly been pencilled in - ten weeks after the end of the British EU presidency). Were the cantankerous French to give it the thumbs down, it would be a death sentence for the treaty.

But Mr Blair would be the first to agree that he cannot simply wait and hope that sceptical voters elsewhere will get him off the hook. He has anyway convinced himself that it is in Britain's interests for the constitution to be ratified. And although he conceded demands for a referendum at the wobbliest moment of his post-Easter wobble, he claims to have no regrets at all. One of the sources of Mr Blair's resilience is that he rarely agonises over decisions once they have been taken. His justification for promising a referendum is as simple as it is compelling: without it, he might not have made it through the summer.

What is extraordinary, however, is that Mr Blair has no more idea today how he might win such a referendum than he did in April. What is even more extraordinary is that he doesn't even seem to be thinking about it much. A couple of weeks ago, a leading Labour pro-European went to see Mr Blair to discuss his strategy for the referendum and was dismayed to find that there wasn't one. The prime minister's advisers say that Europe is barely on his “radar screen”.

Mr Blair's thoughts are dominated by the timetable for elections in Iraq, while his energies are devoted to his ever more hands-on approach to the minutiae of domestic policy. Any time left over is concentrated on the manifesto and planning the general election campaign. Europe can come later. Given that nearly everyone assumes that were he to lose the referendum it would finish him - the idea that he could carry on for the further three years he has committed himself to as if nothing had happened is absurd - Mr Blair's insouciance is shocking.

The prime minister seems to be banking on another thumping majority to revive his political potency and, subsequently, his ability to turn the referendum on the constitution into a vote on staying in the EU. Each of those assumptions is, to say the least, optimistic. Labour is almost certain to win the election, but its hopes of a three-figure majority depend on a continuation of Liberal Democrat supporters voting tactically against Conservatives in Labour/Tory marginals. Fading memories of the last Tory government and hostility to Mr Blair because of the war have eroded that informal alliance, although, until polling day, nobody knows by how much. In normal circumstances, a majority of over 70 would be considered good going for a third-term government. But a halving of Labour's majority, secured with not much more than a one-third share of the vote, will do little to rebuild Mr Blair's authority.

Without a dramatic restoration of his political prestige, Mr Blair's chances of turning round opinion on the constitution are slim. The most recent poll, carried out for the Vote No pressure group by ICM four weeks ago, demonstrates Mr Blair's plight. Respondents were asked to say which of two quite detailed and cleverly crafted statements they agreed with.

The first read: “Tony Blair says we must sign the EU constitution or leave the EU, which would be a disaster for Britain. The constitution is about making Europe work better and it does not significantly transfer more powers from Britain to the EU.” The second read: “Things should be left as they are. Britain should be in Europe, but the new EU constitution will give too much power to the EU over things like jobs, living standards, civil rights and asylum policy. Britain should say 'yes' to Europe and 'no' to the constitution.” Only 28% agreed with the first statement compared with 59% who agreed with the second. The poll also found that 45% think Mr Blair generally lies about Europe compared with 41% who think he generally tells the truth.

The Brown temptation

Mr Blair has always known that the newspapers which will be ranged against him outnumber pro-European papers by three to one in terms of circulation. But when, in the past, he has contemplated a referendum on the euro, he has counted on the combined weight of a united government, pro-European Tories and big business to win the day. But business has become less keen both on Europe and on him, while the erstwhile Tory big beasts, such as Ken Clarke, Michael Heseltine, Douglas Hurd and Chris Patten, have been strident critics of his Iraq policy.

Which leaves the enigma that is Gordon Brown. To say that Mr Blair needs the chancellor battling at his side is an understatement. However, Mr Brown is no great admirer of the constitution and thinks Mr Blair's handing of it has been feeble. These days, Mr Brown seems almost semi-detached from the government. He is not openly disloyal, but, as with the speech he made last weekend, he increasingly hints at how a Brown premiership might differ from a Blair one. As both men will be all too aware, that premiership might become reality much sooner were the referendum not to go Mr Blair's way.

Commentary feature says that Tony Blair has found a way to deal with the awful prospect of a European referendum: not thinking about it.

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