Aznar holds key to deal over constitution

By Dana Spinant

Date: 11/12/03

LEADERS of the European Union will struggle to reach agreement on a historic EU constitution this weekend, as bitter rows on the powers that member states should have in the Union's institutions risk wrecking hopes of a deal.

The omens do not look good for Europe's first constitution, with many officials comparing the Brussels European Council that kicks off tomorrow (12 December) to the infamous Nice summit of December 2000.

At Nice, EU heads of state and government compiled a highly criticized treaty, after an all-night horse-trading session that many leaders admitted was an unsustainable way to write treaties.

The man holding the key to the adoption of the constitution is Spanish premier Jose Maria Aznar (it's his eyes on Page One), and 23 government leaders will step up pressure on him to drop his stubborn opposition to introducing a new voting system in the Council of Ministers.

Spain rejects the 'double majority' formula, under which decisions would be taken if backed by at least half of the member states representing 60% of the Union's population.

The Polish government representative will be on Aznar's side. But convincing Spain is seen as the essential element to getting a deal.

"Madrid's position is crucial. If they give up, Poland will have no other choice than to follow them," one European commissioner told this paper.

The voting system in the Council is the biggest bone of contention, and risks scuppering the constitution deal. Warsaw and Madrid have threatened there will be no constitution unless the Nice voting formula (which gives each member state a certain number of votes) is kept. The Nice deal is more advantageous for the two countries, as they won 27 votes, only two less than Germany, which has double their population.

EU leaders are pondering what they can give to Spain and Poland in exchange for them accepting the double majority. According to an official close to the talks, sweeteners that could convince Aznar to swallow the deal could be three or four more seats for Spain in the European Parliament, increasing the threshold of the double majority from 60% to 62% - or even to 66%. In addition, the new system could be applied from 2014, and not 2009, as initially planned.

This would give Spain - and Poland, which has an equivalent population - more chances to block laws it opposes.

One trade-off could be allowing Spain - together with Poland and four big member states - to keep a second commissioner. That could be, in one commissioner's view, "the ugly, but maybe necessary, deal to save the constitution".

Another incentive for the pair is that if a deal were not reached now, negotiations would continue and interfere with talks on the Union's budget. Spain and Poland are major beneficiaries of EU funding, which finances development of poorer regions.

"Twisted minds would say it is better for Spain and Poland not to intertwine the negotiations on the constitution with the financial talks, because they could lose on all fronts," one French official said.

However, Madrid hinted it would rather renegotiate the votes it got at Nice than accept the double majority.

In the face of harsh Spanish resistance, leaders of France and Germany, the Italian presidency, the Commission and the Parliament insist they would rather halt negotiations than adopt a "Nice bis" (Nice Mark II) treaty, stripped of ambitious institutional reforms.

One German official said "there could be a big advantage in postponing the debate until next summer: by then Aznar will be gone".

Feature says that Spain holds the key as to whether agreement will be made at the European Council in Brussels in December on the proposed European Constitution.