Azerbaijan: President Pinocchio

Date: 18/10/03

Ilham Aliev is being made a leader, but not necessarily a real one

NOBODY ever doubted that Ilham Aliev would secure the presidency of Azerbaijan. He had the benefits of a split opposition, despite a last-minute attempt to unite; and, more usefully, of the fact that his father, Heidar Aliev, had spent the past 34 years turning the country into a personal fief. The ailing father only withdrew from the race 13 days before the vote on October 15th. The usual methods were deployed in the run-up to the election: bribery, beatings and arrests of opposition supporters, exclusion of strong opposition candidates, restrictions on election observers, stacking of election committees with government supporters. The result duly gave Ilham Aliev almost 80% of the vote, handing him an outright first-round victory.

The doubts come after the election, not before. The first is how the younger Aliev will handle Azerbaijan's biggest political issue, the 15-year-old conflict with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh. In 2001, the two countries came close to a deal on the status of Karabakh, a mostly-ethnic-Armenian enclave usually recognised as part of Azerbaijan. Then electioneering put the talks on ice.

Now, with Armenia's Robert Kocharian safely (if equally dubiously) re-elected in February, and the dynastic succession assured in Azerbaijan, many think an agreement could be revived, giving Karabakh self-government. Ilham Aliev has, however, sounded more belligerent in the past few months, hinting that he is prepared to use force again if need be. That may just be vote-mongering; opposition candidates have taken a similar tough line. But there are fears that he might be driven to war if he cannot broker a peace.

His ability to broker anything at all is the second doubt. The elder Aliev was a skilled politician. He kept a balance between the rival factions of the ruling New Azerbaijan party. Abroad he not only maintained a fragile stalemate with Armenia but also juggled Russia, America, Turkey, other Caspian states and foreign oil companies, all vying over Caspian energy resources, pipelines and strategic alliances.

The younger Aliev is better known as a cosmopolitan pseudo-intellectual, fond of gambling and good living, unlikely to be popular even with his father's traditional allies. One sign: earlier this year his uncle was said to be thinking about an election bid. Ilham Aliev's only political experience is a brief stint as a member of parliament and titular deputy leader of the ruling party; his management experience comes from only a few years as a vice-president of the state oil company. He could become a puppet of his father's advisers, not their boss. Which strings they will pull is anybody's guess.