Austria at democratic crossroads

Date: 30/11/1995

By Thomas Klau

NEXT month's general election in Austria is being seen by many as a potentially crucial turning point in the country's complex history.

The parliamentary election scheduled for 17 December is dividing the country more than most of its predecessors and keeping millions of voters glued to their television screens monitoring the latest developments.

At stake is the future of the 'great coalition' between the SPÖ's Social Democrats and the ÖVP's Christian Democrats, which fell apart in October over a minor budgetary squabble after nine years of stable government and barely a year since the last elections.

Undoubtedly at stake are Chancellor Franz Vranitzky's leadership of his Social Democrats and Foreign Minister Wolfgang Schüssel's hold over the ÖVP.

Also at stake, some say, is the future of democracy, since the populist and charismatic right-wing leader Jörg Haider, famous for his flirtation with extremist positions, might well have a serious chance of exerting control over the next government through his FPÖ.

If opinion polls are any indication, a large number of Austrians are still undecided as to which, if any, of the five leading parties they should give their vote.

After decades in government, the SPÖ, which won 35&percent; of the vote in last year's election, is frequently forecast as the biggest loser in the forthcoming ballot, possibly yielding its traditional supremacy to Schüssel's ÖVP. That, at any rate, is the declared ambition of the youthful conservative leader, who wants above all to topple Vranitzky and take over control of the ship of state.

Since no single party is likely to get an absolute majority under Austria's proportional representation system, State President Thomas Klestil would normally entrust the leader of the strongest party with the formation of a new government. But this tradition might well come to an end should both ruling parties spectacularly fall out of favour with the electorate.

The big winner in that case would be Haider's FPÖ, which achieved a substantial 22&percent; of the vote at the last election, just five percentage points behind the staid, middle-of-the-road conservative ÖVP. The two smaller parties, the liberals and the greens, won around 6&percent; of the vote each last year.

Most pollsters have forecast a very close race, refusing to rule out the possibility that the FPÖ might provoke an international outcry by establishing itself as Austria's strongest political force. Should this happen, Klestil is widely expected to break with tradition and hand the task of forming a new government to the electoral runner-up.

Keen to disentangle himself from the association with an SPÖ that he paints as an agent of stagnation and decline, Schüssel - while ready to play the leading part in a renewed grand coalition - has refused to rule out an alliance with Haider's troops.

A conservative alliance in Vienna, while breaking with Austria's tradition of centrist government, might paradoxically facilitate the country's integration into Europe's existing political structures.

While European issues have not played a large role in an election campaign dominated by economic issues and the future of the welfare state, the SPÖ's removal from government would probably spell the end of Austria's neutrality, leading to its swift integration into NATO and the WEU.

A Haider-supported or even tolerated government might thus surprise some of its European partners by taking Austria a few steps further along the road of European integration.

In view of the large number of undecided voters, few observers like to predict whether the widespread dissatisfaction with the political establishment will indeed translate into a spectacular surge in support for outsider parties like the Greens or Haider's FPÖ. Should the Christian Democrats win the election and consider the FPÖ as a partner in a conservative alliance, Haider might well offer to stay out of the cabinet to strengthen his party's acceptability.

Millions of Austrians have responded to the enormous uncertainty over the election results by watching the debating duels that pit party leaders against each other on their television screens. A spectacular 1.5 million people - nearly one Austrian in five - listened to a recent debate between Schüssel and Haider.