Asymmetries in transatlantic monetary policy-making: Does the ECB follow the Fed?

Abstract:

The belief that the European Central Bank (ECB) follows the US Federal Reserve (the Fed) in setting its policy is so entrenched with market participants and commentators that the search for empirical support would seem to be a trivial task. However, this is not the case. We find that the ECB is indeed often influenced by the Fed, but the reverse is true at least as often if one considers longer sample periods. There is empirically little support for the proposition that there has for a long time been a systematic asymmetric leader-follower relationship between the ECB and the Fed. Only after September 2001 is there more evidence of such an asymmetry. There is a clear-cut structural break between the period pre-economic and monetary union (EMU) and EMU itself in terms of the relationship between short-term interest rates on both sides of the Atlantic.