Arctic Repercussions of Russia’s Invasion. Council on Pause, Research on Ice and Russia Frozen Out

Summary:

While Russia remains chair of the Arctic Council until May 2023, the other seven mem­ber states have suspended their participation in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The impacts on Moscow are multiple. Politically the move sidelines a policy area where Russia still played a significant role after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Economically it creates question marks over important Russian Arctic projects and their markets. The interruption of the Council’s work also touches the interests of other states such as China and erodes Russia’s standing in the region. All Western part­ners have suspended scientific and research cooperation.

While Russia is especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change in the Arctic, the disruption of climate-related research is ultimately detrimental to all nations. In the military sphere, Fin­land and Sweden are seeking to join NATO. That outcome would double the length of Russia’s border with NATO states, and represents the exact opposite of Moscow’s original intention to halt the Alliance’s expansion.

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