All the world’s a stage for ‘grown up’ EU

By David Cronin

Date: 28/10/04

EU foreign policy has experienced a turbulent adolescence, emotionally scarred by the US-led war on Iraq. But it will enter adulthood, if things go to plan, while José Manuel Barroso is Commission president.

If the EU constitution is ratified by all 25 member states, the Union will have its first ever foreign minister in 2007. This minister will be double-hatted: a member of the Commission, though pursuing a policy approved by the Council of Ministers.

The job has been earmarked for Javier Solana, currently the EU's high representative for foreign and security policy. He will take on the additional powers to be held initially by Austria's Benita Ferrero-Waldner. Since each member state can only have one commissioner, Solana's 2007 entry into the Commission would mean that Joaquín Almunia would have to leave. His economics and monetary affairs brief would probably go to Ferrero-Waldner.

Barroso has promised to take such an active role in external relations that he will personally chair a working group of fellow commissioners on related issues.

What then will be the key challenges in external relations faced by the new Commission?

Transatlantic relations

Regardless of who wins next week's (2 November) American presidential election, much work will need to be done to improve EU-US ties. During George W. Bush's stint in the White House, there have been marked differences between the two sides on a range of issues including climate change, the Boeing-Airbus dispute, Iran, Israel and the death penalty. While there has been good cooperation, for example, between US Trade Representative Robert Zoellick and Commissioner Pascal Lamy, the Europe-bashing of neo-conservatives such as Donald Rumsfeld has caused enduring strains.

Russia

Chris Patten, the outgoing external relations commissioner, dubbed the handling of Russia as one of the "biggest failures" of EU foreign policy. Vladimir Putin's government, he alleged, has been adept at playing EU member states off against each other. Despite the importance of Russia as an energy supplier, the Commission adopted a paper earlier this year seeking a more assertive stance towards Moscow on Chechnya, human rights and 'frozen conflicts' in the former Soviet Union. Given the growing autocratic tendencies Putin has displayed since the Beslan tragedy, Ferrero-Waldner will have a tough job translating that policy into concrete results.

Turkey

The Commission's line on relations with Turkey is, on the surface, clear: negotiations on the country's EU membership bid should commence. But realpolitik dictates that Olli Rehn, the enlargement commissioner, will have to grapple with such issues as the large-scale opposition in France and some other EU states to the idea of admitting a large, mostly Muslim country. In addition, a further reform of the Common Agricultural Policy is needed to prevent its application to Turkey proving too costly.

Middle East

Patten has had the depressing job of assessing how much damage has been done to EU-funded projects in the occupied territories by Israeli tanks and bulldozers. He has been attacked by the Israeli media over perceptions that the EU's unwavering budgetary support for Yasser Arafat's administration makes it too pro-Palestinian. Israeli media have predicted that Ferrero-Waldner will show a more pro-Israel inclination. Across the wider Middle East region, the Commission will have to make recommendations on what relations to have with Iraq and on the increasingly tricky subject of how to deal with Iran.

Western Balkans

At last year's Thessaloniki summit, EU leaders held out the prospect that the countries of the western Balkans could all join the Union. Barroso has reassigned the western Balkans from the External Relations department to DG Enlargement. While the states have followed up their pledge by formally recognizing Croatia as a candidate for membership, the Commission and member states are facing complaints that aid to Kosovo is too slight to trigger a much-needed economic development.

The Doha Development Round of trade talks

The Trade Commissioner-designate Peter Mandelson has been trying to push the right buttons by stressing his commitment to making the Doha round of world trade talks a success.

That would involve delivering on the promise made in the Qatari capital in 2001 to use trade as an instrument for alleviating poverty in some of the world's most disadvantaged countries. While Mandelson has voiced a desire to open up EU markets more to products from developing countries, there are reports that he is coming under pressure from within the Commission not to go too far.

Poverty and the United Nations' 'Millennium development goals'

Officially, the Commission has no powers to make EU states give more aid to the fight against poverty. But since an international conference in Monterrey, Mexico, in 2002, it has been given a role in monitoring whether EU states are honouring their commitments to donate 0.7% of their gross domestic product to development aid. Louis Michel, the incoming commissioner for development and humanitarian aid, has indicated he considers this work crucial.

China

As a burgeoning economic power, the world's most populous country can expect to figure prominently in the Commission's deliberations.

There will likely be tensions between trade concerns and complaints about Beijing's disputed human rights record.

Analysis feature on the prospects of external relations and the Common Foreign and Security Policy under the Barroso Commission.