Algeria – an unsteady partner for Europe

With Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s re-election, Algeria has entered another phase of the endless transition that started in the 1990s. Once again, this transition, which will be carefully controlled by the regime, will aim at securing the status quo. However, several key developments are coalescing to pose a serious challenge to the country’s immediate future. In addition to growing social unrest and economic hardship, domestic terrorism, increasing ethnic conflict, and growing regional insecurity also threaten Algeria’s much-hailed stability.

Among the many uncertainties that surround the country is whether Algeria can become the energy partner substitute that Europe may need in the aftermath of the Ukraine crisis. Given that Algeria’s dramatic rise in domestic energy consumption and simultaneous decline in gas production will soon substantially reduce the country’s exports, however, EU member states should not assume that Algeria could fulfil that role. Likewise, the notion that Algeria can continue to guarantee regional security in partnership with Europe is questionable given Algeria’s many and growing vulnerabilities.

Europe’s stability-orientated policy towards Algeria should therefore be widened to address more seriously issues of corruption, lack of government transparency, and human rights in order to ensure that public disenchantment and divisions within the political elite do not destabilise Algeria for the long term.

EU: EEAS: Algeria http://eeas.europa.eu/algeria/index_en.htm

ECFR: Publications: Algeria - an unsteady partner for Europe http://www.ecfr.eu/publications/summary/algeria_an_unsteady_partner_for_europe316

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