Alarm over cracks in Dayton peace process

Date: 29/05/1997

By Mark Turner

FOREIGN ministers from Europe, Asia and North America will try to breathe new life into the flagging Dayton peace process this week.

Meeting the day after NATO convenes in Sintra, Portugal, the 'contact group' - including representatives from Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, the UK and the European Commission - hopes to prepare a long-awaited donors' conference to prop up Bosnia's ailing economy and appoint a new high representative to the country.

The move comes amidst growing pessimism about the divisions that continue to cripple the ex-Yugoslav republic, almost two years after Washington brokered a supposedly lasting peace at Dayton.

It also reflects concerns in the West about what happens once the NATO peace implementation troops move out next year, leaving Bosnia to its own devices.

“The Sintra meeting has been called in order to re-energise international attention to the implementation of the peace agreement in Bosnia and Herzegovina,” Carl Bildt, the current high representative, has said. “There is mounting concern in the international community that the common institutions of Bosnia and Herzegovina are moving ahead much too slowly, not least with the crucial economic issues.”

His comments build on a recent speech to the National Press Club in Washington where he stressed the need for Bosnia to avoid any resumption of military struggle, to stop the country from splitting up into its constituent parts and to prevent any one group from monopolising power.

“We must insist on decisions soon on a common flag and common state symbols. We must make it clear that we will no longer deal with ambassadors of Bosnia not appointed or confirmed by the multi-ethnic presidency ... and we must insist on properly coordinated mandates from the common institutions for all Bosnian representatives we are negotiating with,” he said.

These are tough challenges. Both Croatia and Serbia have been steadily encroaching upon and even absorbing their cousins in Bosnia through telecoms, post, trade, and military or police arrangements.

Following preferential cooperation agreements between the Republika Srpska and the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, and between the Federation and Croatia, a 'treaty gap' has opened between the two Bosnian entities.

In a recent brain-storming session, contact group officials identified six major causes for complaint.

Bosnia's central institutions are not functioning properly, there is inadequate freedom of movement and of the press, the rule of law and human rights standards are lax, the country's authorities have not cooperated with the International Court of Justice, Bosnia does not have the economic laws to ensure it works as a single state, and there is insufficient police control.

At the same time, there are rising tensions over the return of refugees, with whom countries such as Germany are growing increasingly impatient.

With western troops due to withdraw in mid-1998, the picture does not look very encouraging. “It will take a strong figure to put things back on track,” said an official.

The difficulties inherent in what has often been a thankless task for Bildt have made the search for a new high representative a difficult one.

Given that the successful candidate also has to have a high profile, with the political weight to speak directly to foreign ministers, the Dutch presidency has been faced with one rejection after another.

The top contender now appears to be Spain's Carlos Westendorp - well-known in Brussels but less so outside - followed by the UK's ex-Defence Minister Michael Portillo and previous speaker of the Finnish parliament Ilka Souminen.

It is proving equally difficult to arrange a donors' conference for the country, already delayed for months, given Bosnia's failure to follow international economic guidelines.

The Sintra meeting will aim to set a new conference date for June, but insiders suggest that this may be optimistic. “It seems unlikely that people will want to support Bosnia until it moves into line with International Monetary Fund rules. That could take a long time,” said one.

Despite all of this, Bildt is still quick to stress that Dayton was not a disaster. After all, there have been no overt hostilities since the agreement was brokered, and that has to be the bottom line.

But a short-term lack of war is only the first step towards a resumption of peaceful democracy. Ensuring a lasting conciliation once the world goes home will require far more than papering over the cracks. And for all the West's apparent concern, that job is not being done.