Aggregate and Regional Business Cycle Synchronisation in the Nordic Countries

Abstract:

In the wake of the economic and financial crisis, a Swedish membership to the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) has returned to the domestic political agenda. Although the issue has been politically dead since the referendum on the euro in 2003, public opinion in support of EMU has increased the past year as the Swedish krona has continued to depreciate.

The report Aggregate and Regional Business Cycle Synchronisation in the Nordic Countries revisit this issue by studying aggregate and regional business cycle asymmetries in the Nordic countries Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. The authors find, among other things, that Denmark and Finland have become more synchronous relative to the euro area since 1992, while no such trend is found in the case of Sweden. Norway, on the other hand, displays tendencies to become increasingly asymmetric relative to the euro area during the same time period.