After reflection, resurrection

After the conspicuous silence during the so-called period of reflection, the Union is gearing up to revive its stalled EU constitution almost as soon as the German presidency kicks off on 1 January.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel tried to play down reports that a revised version of the text with minimal changes could be agreed as early as the end of the Portuguese presidency next December. "No one said we should have a text by the end of the Portuguese presidency," she said at her post-summit press conference last Friday (15 Dec-ember). No one, that is, except Germany’s top diplomat in Brussels, Wilhelm Schönfelder, who was sitting in the front row and had stated two weeks ago precisely what Merkel was denying.

Proving beyond reasonable doubt that plans are afoot to re-launch the constitution negotiations as soon as possible, the Spanish and Luxembourg European affairs ministers announced they would be hosting a meeting on 26 January in Madrid of all 18 current and future EU member states which have ratified the text, with a second meeting in Luxembourg on 27 February. Luxembourg’s Europe Minister Nicolas Schmit told European Voice: "We have discussed this with Germany… the aim of the initiative is to support the efforts of the German presidency to look for a roadmap, a solution on the constitution."

Asked whether Germany would participate in the meeting, Merkel was rather coy although she emphasised that her home country was one of the 18 countries which had approved the constitution (including Romania and Bulgaria which have ratified it as part of their treaties on joining the EU). "The 18 countries have said that their vote should not disappear," she said.

The reaction from the two countries which said ‘No’ to the constitution, France and the Netherlands, was measured. Commenting on the proposal, French President Jacques Chirac said: "Believe me, it does not deserve so much publicity."

Dutch Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende said: "You can have informal contacts but this should not take on a life of its own." He added that he did not think much could be achieved on the constitution next year because of the need to form new governments in the Netherlands and Austria and a change of leadership in France and the UK. "To take part we need a new cabinet in the Netherlands," he said.

Despite the two leaders’ caution it is clear that under the most optimistic scenario currently being discussed by EU governments, if there was agreement to have the smallest possible changes to the constitution text the Portuguese presidency could be given a mandate at the end of Germany’s term of office to hold a short intergovernmental conference with contributions from the Commission and the European Parliament.

Schönfelder’s predictions of a new text by the end of 2007 was based on a backwards extra-polation of the target date from 2009, allowing a year for ratification of a new treaty.

But as Balkenende pointed out, such rapid progress is far from certain. It would depend on who becomes the next French president in May 2007 as there is a lot of support for Nicolas Sarkozy’s idea of a mini-treaty to avoid the need for new referenda. But both the Dutch and Austrians need to form working coalitions with a credible negotiating mandate. UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, who strongly supports the constitution even though his decision to call a referendum started the chain of events which saw the treaty rejected by French voters, will step down before the autumn. His likely successor, finance minister Gordon Brown, is much less keen on the constitution. But Blair is expected to attend next June’s summit, which will set out the next steps towards salvaging the text, and lock his successor into a more open position towards the document than Brown himself would prefer. In that sense the Spanish-Luxembourg initiative of the 18 "ratifiers" is a repeat of the original plan for the UK to hold its referendum last, after the 24 other member states had approved the text, leaving Blair to ask UK voters whether they really wanted to stay outside a club whose rules all members except one had agreed.

But this time round there are several other members of the "awkward squad", including, potentially, Poland and the Czech Republic and even the Dutch again.

After the conspicuous silence during the so-called period of reflection, the Union is gearing up to revive its stalled EU constitution almost as soon as the German presidency kicks off on 1 January.