A raft of referenda will keep the Grand Duchy on its toes in 2005

By David Cronin

Date: 16/12/04

LUXEMBOURG could struggle to keep the minds of government leaders focused on the Union during its EU presidency.

That is because - as Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn put it - it faces "an avalanche of referenda and national elections" over the six-month period.

The governments of Spain, France, the Netherlands, Luxembourg itself and possibly Portugal will be preoccupied with the polls they are holding on the EU constitution.

Opinion polls indicate that the referenda should be carried, making the prospect of a crisis in the first half of the year remote.

But the anticipated UK general election could have a bearing on one of the key challenges which Luxembourg has identified: reaching an accord on the EU's spending plans for 2007-13.

Because the future of the British budget rebate is a key issue, Luxembourg is hoping that the UK government will show greater flexibility after the election expected in May, so that a deal can be finalized the following month.

Following the entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol on climate change in February 2005, the government of Jean-Claude Juncker will begin work on the EU's contribution to curbing greenhouse gas emissions in the post-2012 period.

On world trade talks, Luxembourg will focus in the coming months on rules that allow developing countries to use trade to alleviate poverty.

On weapons of mass destruction, Luxembourg is promising to play an active role in the revision of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

The Union has scored a diplomatic coup in this field through the agreement which the foreign ministers of France, the UK and Germany secured with Iran on halting the latter's uranium enrichment.

Making sure that Tehran abides by its commitments will be a litmus test for the EU's foreign policy in 2005.

Jean Asselborn will be travelling to the US on Monday (20 December) to discuss how transatlantic ties can be improved. George W. Bush appears determined to be on better terms with Europe than during his first term.

He has announced a trip to Brussels in February.

The visit will attempt to convey a message of harmony, but there will be much scope for friction, particularly over such trade disputes as that between Boeing and Airbus.

For his first visit of 2005, Asselborn is to travel to Israel, the West Bank and Jordan.

The forthcoming elections to find a replacement for the late Yasser Arafat as Palestinian Authority leader, coupled with Israel's pledged withdrawal from Gaza, could "mark the beginning of a positive process that allows an exit from the apparently ceaseless spiral of violence" in the Middle East, Asselborn has said. He is hoping too that the US and Arab countries will step up efforts to resolve the conflict.

The foreign minister has dubbed 2005 the "year of big deadlines for the former Yugoslavia".

The international community has undertaken to study whether Kosovo is meeting Western standards of democracy and to conclude whether negotiations on its final status should begin.

The Union will have to pay great heed to Bosnia as well, especially now that it runs the peacekeeping mission there.

Relations between the EU and Russia will continue to be fraught but Luxembourg has indicated a desire to liaise closely with Moscow on the difficulties facing Ukraine, Belarus, the Caucasus and Moldova.

Achieving tangible breakthroughs could require diplomatic masterstrokes. Juncker has already started to prepare the ground by visiting Russia earlier this week (14 December).

On enlargement, the Grand Duchy is preparing for a ceremony in May during which leaders from Romania and Bulgaria will sign accession treaties, paving the way for joining the Union in 2007.

Luxembourg also hopes to start accession talks with Croatia. Yet doing so is complicated by the alleged slowdown in cooperation between Zagreb and the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia.

Turkey should pose no major problem at this stage. Luxembourg's main task will probably be to clear the way for membership talks with Recep Tayyip Erdogan's government, most likely to start in the second half of the year.

Luxembourg says it will not neglect Africa, promising to pay much attention to the UN's Millennium Development Goals of halving poverty by 2015.

It will need a huge leap in aid donations and debt relief if it is to arrest the negative trends in Africa.

Preview of the Luxembourg Presidency of the Council in the first half of 2005 and a number of national elections and referenda taking place in the same period.