A quantum of possibilities. The strategic spectrum of the EU’s Arctic policy

Summary:

“Geography is changing – even though we cannot change geography”, were the words of Norway’s then Foreign Minister, Jonas Gahr Støre, almost 10 years ago when he succinctly captured the essence of Arctic change – from the impact of global climate change to increased awareness of all matters pertaining to the region. A decade later, Støre’s analysis is more pertinent than ever. The Arctic is still in a complex state of flux. Be this because of the extraordinary rate of change, evidenced by extreme warm air temperatures in the Eurasian Arctic, Russia’s militarisation efforts, China’s increasing regional interests or the tweets of a particularly polarising (former) US President.

In steps the European Union. A complicated creature that has also had to contend with multiple crises and their resulting challenges and calls for change. A Union that is currently in the process of defining what kind of security and defence actor it wants to be. A Union that is also reflecting on its Arctic presence, interests and influence. Over the last 10 years, security has received little attention in the EU’s Arctic considerations, and neither did the Arctic play a role in broader European reflections on security and defence. But is this about to change?