A model for predicting future EU enlargements – and why most candidate states could be waiting some time

The last state to join the European Union was Croatia in 2013, but when can current candidate states expect to secure their accession to the EU? Tina Freyburg and Tobias Böhmelt present results from a new study* of the capacity of candidate states to meet accession criteria. They find that only one of the current candidate states (Macedonia) would be projected to meet the criteria by 2023, with Serbia and Turkey likely to succeed by the mid-2030s, and Albania and Bosnia-Herzegovina unlikely to meet the criteria before 2050.

* Forecasting candidate states’ compliance with EU accession rules, 2017–2050

Journal of European Public Policy, Vol.24, No.1, 2017: Forecasting candidate states’ compliance with EU accession rules, 2017–2050 http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13501763.2017.1348385

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