Russia’s War in Ukraine: Status Update

Summary:

As Russia’s war in Ukraine enters its third year, both Ukraine and Russia continue to battle for territory along the 600-mile front line. At various points in the conflict, the advantage has shifted between Ukraine and Russia, but since the beginning of 2024 Russian forces have made territorial gains, prompting some analysts to argue that current conditions may favor Russia. As Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines testified before Congress on May 2, 2024, “Russia is making incremental progress on the battlefield with the potential for tactical breakthroughs along the front lines in areas such as Donetsk and Kharkiv.” For both Russia and Ukraine, having sufficient military reserves could be a key factor in determining success on the battlefield.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) continue to experience shortages of personnel and equipment, especially artillery and air defense ammunition. In April 2024, Congress passed the Ukraine Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2024 (Division B of P.L. 118-50), committing more than $60 billion to support Ukraine and other countries affected by Russia’s war. P.L. 118-50 provides security and economic assistance, as observers continue to debate the ability of either side to obtain a decisive advantage through 2024.