Russia’s 2024 presidential election: What is at stake and what is not

Summary:

On 15-17 March 2024, more than two years into the unprovoked and unjustified war of aggression on Ukraine, and one month after the sudden death in custody of the opposition leader Alexei Navalny, Russia will hold its presidential election. Over 110 million Russian citizens, including more than 6 million living in Ukrainian territories temporarily occupied by Russia, are invited to take part in what is largely seen as a carefully staged legitimisation ritual for Vladimir Putin's reappointment to a fifth term in office, until 2030. Putin has been in power, as either president or prime minister, since the last day of 1999; and Russia has been at war for 19 of his 24 years at the helm. The constitutional changes of 2020 allowed Putin to stand for a fifth term, and possibly for a sixth term in 2030. He is running for re election without any meaningful opposition, after barring the two anti-war candidates who stood for election despite the restrictions, and against a backdrop of a virtually total closure of the civic space, draconian repression of public dissent and suppressed freedom of expression. The reappointment of Vladimir Putin seems inexorable. The objective of the Kremlin, however, is not just victory, but a landslide result, both in turnout and percentage of votes. This would legitimise Putin's legacy and his war of aggression, relegating the remaining opposition to an even more marginalised role, and allowing Putin to implement, unchecked, his vision for the next six years. Recent changes to Russia's electoral laws make it virtually impossible to conduct any meaningful monitoring, and have significantly restricted the role of the media. Observers from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe will not be present, as was previously the case with the September 2021 parliamentary elections. A number of civil society organisations and personalities have called on the international community not to recognise the results as legitimate; this demand was also made by the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) in October 2023.

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