A sharp right turn: A forecast for the 2024 European Parliament elections

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Series Details ECFR/523, Number 523
Publication Date January 2024
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Summary:

The 2024 European Parliament elections will see a major shift to the right in many countries, with populist radical right parties gaining votes and seats across the European Union (EU), and centre-left and green parties losing votes and seats. Anti-European populists are likely to top the polls in nine member states and come second or third in a further nine countries. According to our forecast, almost half the seats will be held by MEPs outside the “super grand coalition” of the three centrist groups.

Inside the European Parliament, a populist right coalition of Christian democrats, conservatives, and radical right MEPs could emerge with a majority for the first time. This ‘sharp right turn’ is likely to have significant consequences for European-level policies, which will affect the foreign policy choices that the EU can make, particularly on environmental issues, where the new majority is likely to oppose ambitious EU action to tackle climate change.

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Related Links
News
Euronews, 24/01/2024: Right-wing populists could gain control of EU Parliament for first time as voters swing right: study https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/01/24/right-wing-populists-could-gain-control-of-eu-parliament-for-first-time-as-voters-swing-ri
The Guardian, 24/01/2024: ‘Anti-European’ populists on track for big gains in EU elections, says report https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/24/anti-european-populists-on-track-for-big-gains-in-eu-elections-says-report
RTÉ News, 24/01/2024: Sinn Féin will gain three seats in European elections, poll suggests https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2024/0124/1428367-sinn-fein-european-elections/
The Scotsman, 24/01/2024: European Parliament set for far-right swing in June elections, report claims https://www.scotsman.com/news/world/european-parliament-set-for-far-right-swing-in-june-elections-report-claims-4489986

Commentary and Analysis
Social Europe, 30/01/2024: A sharp right turn: European Parliament election forecast https://www.socialeurope.eu/a-sharp-right-turn-european-parliament-election-forecast
Politico, 06/02/2024: This time, the far-right threat is real https://www.politico.eu/article/brussels-braces-for-far-right-wave-as-eu-election-looms/

European University Institute (EUI): Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies: Events, 28/02/2024: A forecast for the 2024 European Parliament elections: A sharp right turn? (via Youtube) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zNS5fo8DmtE

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