Turkish presidential election, May 2023

Summary:

Information Guide concerning the presidential election held in Turkey on 14 May 2023.

Further information:

The President of Turkey is directly elected through the two-round system, under which a candidate must obtain a simple majority (more than 50%) of the popular vote to be elected. If no candidate secures an overall majority outright, then a runoff is held between the two most voted-for candidates from the first round, the winner of which is then declared elected.

The regular scheduled date for the first round of the elections was set for 18 June 2023. However - and despite the opposition from his opponents - the incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdoğan forced the election to be held earlier than initially scheduled, on 14 May. A parliamentary election would be held simultaneously alongside the presidential election.

The electoral campaign was strongly influenced by the deadly earthquakes hitting the south eastern region of the country in February 2023. The wider economic situation in Turkey and the cost of living were also present in the campaign, which was considered highly divisive and generally tense. There were episodes of violence, affecting primarily the campaign of the opposition alliance.

Four candidates appeared in the ballot, even though one of them withdrew a few days before the election took place. The main candidates were the incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, leading a conservative and islamist platform, and Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, representing an alliance of opposition parties ranging from nationalism to secularism and left-wing movements. The first round resulted in a victory for Mr Erdoğan (49.5%), closely followed by Mr Kılıçdaroğlu (44.9%).

A second round was held on 28 May, which was won by Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (52.2%).

Official

Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE): ODIHR: Turkey: General Elections, 14 May 2023 https://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/turkiye/537642

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News

Politico: Tag: Turkish elections 2023 https://www.politico.eu/article/recep-tayyip-erdogan-turkey-election-2023-plots-war-opponents-crackdown/

Deutsche Welle: Turkey election 2023 https://p.dw.com/p/4PrKj

France24: Tag: Turkish elections 2023 https://www.france24.com/en/tag/turkish-elections-2023/

Euronews: Tag: 14 May Turkiye Presidential Elections https://www.euronews.com/tag/14-may-turkiye-presidential-elections

BBC News: Turkish elections 2023 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/c2e2erm9mm9t

Politico, 02/01/2023: Erdoğan plots war, crackdown to save his skin https://www.politico.eu/article/recep-tayyip-erdogan-turkey-election-2023-plots-war-opponents-crackdown/

Deutsche Welle, 18/01/2023: Turkey: Erdogan sets stage for earlier elections https://p.dw.com/p/4MNJ9

Associated Press (AP News), 22/01/2023: Erdogan announces Turkish elections to be held on May 14 https://apnews.com/article/politics-turkey-government-recep-tayyip-erdogan-f2a75ed9d0569459c8dade26c694422c

Le Monde, 14/04/2023: Turkey: Tension rises a month ahead of an election in which anything can happen https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2023/04/14/turkey-tension-rises-a-month-ahead-of-an-election-in-which-anything-can-happen_6022974_4.html

Associated Press (AP News), 11/05/2023: Turkish candidate drops out in boost to Erdogan’s main challenger https://apnews.com/article/turkey-elections-ince-withdraws-ab71e315144e0d8454945611895d6d1e

RTÉ News, 14/05/2023: Turkey's knife-edge vote heads to likely run-off https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2023/0514/1383491-turkey-elections/

The Guardian, 14/04/2023: Erdoğan’s grip on power tested as Turkey votes in pivotal election https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/14/erdogans-grip-on-power-tested-as-turkey-goes-to-the-polls

The Guardian, 16/05/2023: Turkey’s economic crisis expected to deepen after Erdoğan tops poll https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/16/turkey-economic-crisis-expected-to-deepen-after-erdogan-tops-election-poll

Associated Press (AP News), 19/05/2023: Turkey’s electoral board confirms 1st round election results; Erdogan meets 3rd party candidate https://apnews.com/article/turkey-electoral-board-results-confirmed-b12904cb08531897a9f7cf4aa91281e6

Deutsche Welle, 20/05/2023: Turkish elections: 'Hope springs eternal' https://p.dw.com/p/4Rbwe

Associated Press (AP News), 27/05/2023: As Turkey heads to runoff presidential race, domestic issues loom large https://apnews.com/article/turkey-elections-issues-erdogan-947c641990cb6a88d9c332fca184e062

Le Monde, 28/05/2023: Turkish election: In Lyon with Erdogan supporters https://www.lemonde.fr/en/turkey/article/2023/05/28/turkish-election-in-lyon-with-erdogan-supporters_6028285_219.html

The Guardian, 28/05/2023: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan wins Turkish presidential election https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/28/polls-close-in-second-round-of-the-turkish-presidential-election

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Commentary and Analysis

International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES): Election Guide: election for Turkish Presidency (2023) https://www.electionguide.org/elections/id/4039/

Euro|topics: Debates: Turkish elections 2023 https://www.eurotopics.net/en/299365/turkish-elections-2023

Balkan Insight: Tag: Turkey 2023 Elections https://balkaninsight.com/tag/turkey-2023-elections/

Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS): European Election Watch: 2023: Turkey https://www.csis.org/programs/europe-russia-and-eurasia-program/projects/european-election-watch/2023-elections/turkey

Stockholm University: Institute for Turkish Studies (SUITS): Policy Brief, No 1 Winter 2023: What Can We Expect from Turkey's 2023 Elections? https://www.su.se/institute-for-turkish-studies/about-the-institute/what-can-we-expect-from-turkey-s-2023-elections-1.654857

Human Rights Watch (HRW): News, 12/01/2023: Turkey: Tightened Control in Election Run-Up https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/01/12/turkey-tightened-control-election-run

The Economist: Special Report, 16/01/2023: Turkey faces a crucial election this summer https://www.economist.com/special-report/2023/01/16/turkey-faces-a-crucial-election-this-summer

The Economist: Special Report, 16/01/2023: The Turkish opposition faces big obstacles to winning the election https://www.economist.com/special-report/2023/01/16/the-turkish-opposition-faces-big-obstacles-to-winning-the-election

Reuters: Explainer, 18/01/2023: What's at stake in Turkey's upcoming elections https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/whats-stake-turkeys-upcoming-elections-2023-01-18/

The Intercept, 22/01/2023: Turkey's next elections could be the country's last real democratic vote https://theintercept.com/2023/01/22/turkey-election-erdogan/

Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW): Analyses, 24/01/2023: Turkey: early elections ahead https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2023-01-24/turkey-early-elections-ahead

CNN News, 27/01/2023: The world looks on as Erdogan jockeys for a third decade of power in Turkey https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/27/middleeast/turkey-elections-erdogan-mime-intl/index.html

Foreign Affairs, 03/02/2023: Turkey’s Turning Point. What Will Erdogan Do to Stay in Power? https://www.foreignaffairs.com/turkey/turkeys-turning-point-erdogan

German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP): Comment No 7, 09/02/2023: The Post-Erdoğan Vision of Turkish Opposition: Opportunities and Limitations http://doi.org/10.18449/2023C07

Foreign Policy, 13/02/2023: The Quake That Exposed Erdogan’s Fault Lines https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/02/13/turkey-syria-earthquake-erdogan-elections-negligence/

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 16/02/2023: The Turkish Elections and Syria’s Future https://carnegieendowment.org/sada/89063

London School of Economics (LSE): MEC Blog, 17/02/2023: Quake Aftermath Poses Questions on Timing and Conditions for Turkey Elections https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/mec/2023/02/17/quake-aftermath-poses-questions-on-timing-and-conditions-for-turkey-elections/

The Conversation, 18/02/2023: Turkish President Erdoğan’s grip on power threatened by devastating earthquake https://theconversation.com/turkish-president-erdogans-grip-on-power-threatened-by-devastating-earthquake-200033

EUObserver: Opinion, 21/03/2023: Turkey's election — the Erdoğan vs Kılıçdaroğlu showdown https://euobserver.com/opinion/156847

The Economist, 26/03/2023: Ahead of a critical election Turkey’s economy is running on borrowed time https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/03/26/ahead-of-a-critical-election-turkeys-economy-is-running-on-borrowed-time

Centre for European Reform (CER): Policy Brief, 29/03/2023: The EU and Turkey after the elections: the start of a new chapter? https://www.cer.eu/publications/archive/policy-brief/2023/eu-and-turkey-after-elections-start-new-chapter

Chatham House: The World Today, 31/03/2023: The earthquake might upend more than Turkey’s elections https://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/the-world-today/2023-04/earthquake-might-upend-more-turkeys-elections

German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP): IP Quarterly: The Wider View, 31/03/2023: Erdogan on the Brink https://ip-quarterly.com/en/erdogan-brink

Foreign Policy: Analysis, 14/04/2023: What if Kemal Kilicdaroglu Wins Turkey’s Election? https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/04/14/turkey-election-kemal-kilicdaroglu-chp-platform-erdogan/

The Guardian, 16/04/2023: Will Turkey’s elections finally spell the end of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/16/will-turkeys-elections-spell-end-of-recep-tayyip-erdogan

Politico, 17/04/2023: 2023’s most important election: Turkey https://www.politico.eu/article/turkey-2023-election-erdogan-kilicdaroglu/

London School of Economics (LSE): EUROPP Blog, 18/04/2023: What the 2023 Turkish general election could mean for EU-Turkey relations https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2023/04/18/what-the-2023-turkish-general-election-could-mean-for-eu-turkey-relations/

S&P Global: Market Intelligence: Blog, 20/04/2023: Political scenarios for Turkey’s presidential and general elections https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/research-analysis/political-scenarios-for-turkeys-presidential-and-general-elect.html

Foreign Policy: Analysis, 22/04/2023: What Happens When a Turkish President Loses an Election? No One Knows. https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/04/22/turkey-presidential-election-erdogan-akp-personality-cults-military-earthquake-economy/

European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR): Commentary, 25/04/2023: How the West should prepare for the Turkish elections https://ecfr.eu/article/how-the-west-should-prepare-for-the-turkish-elections/

Human Rights Watch (HRW): News, 25/04/2023: Turkey: Pre-Election Crackdown on Kurds https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/04/25/turkey-pre-election-crackdown-kurds

French Institute of International Relations (IFRI): Études de l’Ifri, 03/05/2023: Political Coalitions in Turkey in the Run-Up to the 2023 Elections https://www.ifri.org/en/publications/etudes-de-lifri/political-coalitions-turkey-run-2023-elections

European Parliamentary Research Service (EPRS): Briefing [What the Think Tanks are Thinking], 03/05/2023: Türkiye's high-stakes elections https://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/document/EPRS_BRI(2023)747133

Foreign Affairs, 04/05/2023: Turkey’s Resilient Autocrat https://www.foreignaffairs.com/turkey/erdogan-turkeys-resilient-autocrat

Sciences Po: News, 05/05/2023: 2023 Turkish General Election: The Return to Democracy? https://www.sciencespo.fr/en/news/2023-turkish-general-election-the-return-to-democracy

Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW): Commentary, 05/05/2023: Election of the century in Turkey https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/osw-commentary/2023-05-05/election-century-turkey

German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP): Point of View, 10/05/2023: Is extensive election fraud possible in Turkey’s fiercest elections? https://www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/is-extensive-election-fraud-possible-in-turkeys-fiercest-elections

The Economist: Explainer, 12/05/2023: How free and fair will Turkey’s election be? https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2023/05/12/how-free-and-fair-will-turkeys-election-be

openDemocracy: 50.50 News, 12/05/2023: What’s at stake for women in Turkey’s election https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/5050/turkey-erdogan-election-2023-womens-rights-we-will-stop-femicides/

Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI): Dossier, 12/05/2023: The Elections that Could Change Turkey’s Future https://www.ispionline.it/en/publication/the-elections-that-could-change-turkeys-future-128625

London School of Economics (LSE): MEC Blog, 12/05/2023: Turkey at the Polls: An Election Like No Other https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/mec/2023/05/12/turkey-at-the-polls-an-election-like-no-other/

Politico, 14/05/2023: Turkish century: History looms large on election day https://www.politico.eu/article/turkey-election-2023-recep-tayyip-erdogan-kemal-kilicdaroglu-mustafa-kemal-ataturk/

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: Events, 15/05/2023: Turkey's Elections: Exploring the Political Landscape and Future Implications https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/05/15/turkey-s-elections-exploring-political-landscape-and-future-implications-event-8093

Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW): Analyses, 15/05/2023: Turkey: a spectacular electoral success of the ruling camp https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2023-05-15/turkey-a-spectacular-electoral-success-ruling-camp

OBC Transeuropa, 16/05/2023: Turkey, second round for the presidential elections https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/Turkey/Turkey-second-round-for-the-presidential-elections-225185

EUObserver: Opinion, 16/05/2023: Post-election: Turkey's problems are more than just Erdoğan https://euobserver.com/opinion/157041

Carnegie Europe: Strategic Europe, 16/05/2023: Turkey Heads Into a Critical Election Runoff https://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/89761

Friedrich Ebert Foundation: IPS Journal: Interview, 16/05/2023: ‘The polarisation of Turkey into two camps continues’ https://www.ips-journal.eu/interviews/the-polarisation-of-turkey-into-two-camps-continues-6703/

Foreign Policy: Argument, 17/05/2023: Why Turkey Experts Got the Election All Wrong https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/05/17/turkey-election-results-experts-wrong/

European Consortium of Political Research (ECPR): The Loop, 17/05/2023: Elections in Turkey: Erdoğan forced into electoral runoff https://theloop.ecpr.eu/elections-in-turkey-erdogan-forced-into-electoral-runoff/

The Economist: Correspondent's Take, 17/05/2023: What happens next in Turkey’s elections? https://www.economist.com/films/2023/05/17/what-happens-next-in-turkeys-elections

London School of Economics (LSE): EUROPP Blog, 18/05/2023: What the Turkish election means for Armenia-Turkey relations https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2023/05/18/what-the-turkish-election-means-for-armenia-turkey-relations/

Foreign Policy: Opinion, 19/05/2023: What Does Turkey’s Election Mean for the World? https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/05/19/what-does-turkeys-election-mean-for-the-world/

BBC News, 20/05/2023: Turkey election: Why the world is watching the presidential race https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65647483

Le Monde, 21/05/2023: Turkey elections: The opposition's dangerous shift to the right https://www.lemonde.fr/en/turkey/article/2023/05/21/turkey-the-opposition-s-dangerous-shift-to-the-right_6027428_219.html

Middle East Institute (MEI): Blog, 22/05/2023: Turkish Election Watch: Preparing for a presidential run-off https://www.mei.edu/blog/turkish-election-watch-preparing-presidential-run

Chatham House: Expert Comment, 22/05/2023: Turkey’s politics on the cusp of generational change https://www.chathamhouse.org/2023/05/turkeys-politics-cusp-generational-change

Foreign Policy: Argument, 23/05/2023: Turkey Is the EU’s Only Hope https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/05/23/turkey-election-runoff-erdogan-kilicdaroglu-eu-membership/

The Economist, 26/05/2023: Recep Tayyip Erdogan is favoured to win Turkey’s presidential election https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/05/26/recep-tayyip-erdogan-is-favoured-to-win-turkeys-presidential-election

UK Parliament: House of Commons Library: Research Briefing No 9806, 26/05/2023: Turkey under Erdoğan: recent developments and the 2023 elections https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9806/

The Conversation, 29/05/2023: How Erdogan held onto power in Turkey, and what this means for the country’s future https://theconversation.com/how-erdogan-held-onto-power-in-turkey-and-what-this-means-for-the-countrys-future-206293

German Marshall Fund of the United States: ASD Blog, 30/05/2023: Turkish Elections: Cloudy with a Certainty of Absolute Reign https://securingdemocracy.gmfus.org/turkish-elections-cloudy-with-a-certainty-of-absolute-reign/

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Wikipedia: 2023 Turkish presidential election https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Turkish_presidential_election

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